Cincy over Cleveland
DP: Ehh?
TJ: I’m just fucking depressed about how the Browns are finishing the season. They showed a lot of heart and beat some good teams even after they were out of the playoff hunt, and now they’ve lost to the Bills and Bengals in consecutive weeks. Maybe these teams watched game film and figured out that the whole Cleveland offense was handing the ball off to Hillis, but these are shitty teams and there’s no getting around that. Just sad.
Carolina over Arizona
DP: Carolina wins, but keeps the top pick since Cincy beat Cleveland. So does Andrew Luck want to go the Panthers or stay put in beautiful Palo Alto another year? Also don't forget, the Pats actually have the Panthers second round pick which looks like it will be #33 overall. Since the NFL draft is now 3 days, it means they will hold on to that pick overnight between rounds 1 and 2. Damn Pats! They trade Richard Seymour, trade Randy Moss and still end up with a
12-2 record and now have 3 picks in the top 33 next year.
TJ: This game was about as exciting as Ben Stein’s outtakes from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.” At least we know Arizona is out of the NFC West race.
Buff over Miami
DP: Another game without much play-off importance, but it does raise two interesting questions. Why the hell can't Miami win at home (1-6 home, 6-1 road)? And is Ryan Fitzpatrick for real?
TJ: Miami could legitimately go 1-7 at home, 7-1 on the road. I’ve never seen anything like it. I hated on the Bills all year, and here they are playing competitively after they’ve been long-eliminated from the postseason. If you look at his stats, Fitzpatrick has been remarkably decent all year: his overall rating is 86, and his best games were weeks 5, 7, and 11, with his worst weeks being 8, 9, and 12, so he spread his good and bad games out throughout the season. Miami was a team we really liked in the preseason, but they changed their philosophy away from the run and creative offensive packages, and I don’t see them improving next year. Buffalo, however, could improve significantly and wind up 8-8 next year. Neither team is doing anything this year, though.
Tenn over Houston
DP: I won't even try to pretend to figure out these two teams. Both have some nice talent, both have been plagued by inconsistent play. One interesting note is that Bill Cowher 'released'
his list of teams that he would be willing to come back and coach. The list included Miami and the Giants which is not surprising since they have reputations for having good owners. The third team was Houston. What does Cowher see in Houston?
TJ: I certainly didn’t expect Tennessee to show heart at this stage in the season. So, are we saying they haven’t quit on Fisher yet? Will Vince Young be back next year? Houston remains the biggest tease in the NFL: every year they look like they’re going to give us what we want, and every year they wind up folding before the playoffs. I agree with the Doc: if I were Cowher, I’d avoid Houston like the plague.
Detroit over Tampa
DP: The first of the upsets that will shape the NFC play-off race. Tampa needed this home win to keep up for the wild-card, but fell to Detroit. Depending on how you look at the game you could either say that Tampa was injury ravaged and fell back to Earth or that Detroit is an up and coming team that is still playing hard. I will give Detroit a little love. They held Green Bay to 3 points last week and now win on the road against another NFC contender. Interestingly, second half record is a pretty good predictor of next season's success; which bodes well for Detroit. If they can ever get Stafford on the field, they may be able to turn things around.
I won't cry too much for Tampa since they are probably a year early anyway. They have a good young team and I think they have a nice future.
TJ: I think Josh Freeman has finally started playing like the rookie he is. What a promising start to a career, though. This is the kind of kid you can build a franchise around. In the past, Detroit always seemed like they had some talent, but needed better line play on both sides of the ball. With the emergence of Suh and an occasionally productive offense, maybe they’ve finally figured it out. 2010 is over for both teams, though.
Dallas over Washington
DP: Assuming that Dallas beats the Cardinals next week (likely) Jason Garrett will be 5-2 as interim coach (ending the season in Philly). That will be good enough to win the head coaching job for good. As for Redskins, I can't decide if benching McNabb for Grossman was the right move or not. Grossman played well, but I can't imagine he is the long term answer at QB. Until Washington stops trying to fix things with stop-gap measures and starts building long-term through the draft, I suspect they will just be spinning their wheels.
TJ: Another meeting of teams with nothing to play for in 2010, but with a lot on the line for the future. I think Shannahan has screwed up his QB situation more than anyone thought possible. I wish Rick Pitino could show up in the locker room and yell at him “John Elway’s not walking through that door!” McNabb is a good ball player, and they’ve failed to utilize him. As a result, they stink. The ‘Boys should have gotten rid of Grandpa Wade after last season. They’d be competing for a Wild Card right now at worst.
Atlanta over 'Skanks
DP: This win should just about wrap up the #1 seed in the NFC for the Falcons. At 12-2, they need to either beat the Saints or Panthers (both at home) to get to 13 wins. Since they are undefeated at home, I think it looks good. That makes the Falcons a clear favorite (along with Eagles) to represent the NFC in the Superbowl. The 'Skanks now need to travel across the country and beat a desperate Tampa team. Welcome to the NFL Pete Carroll!
TJ: Atlanta is the clear NFC favorite, and I’ll even say they should kill Philly at home in the playoffs. As for the ‘Skanks, I wouldn’t call Tampa desperate, I’d call them done. Even so, I can’t see the ‘Skanks winning that game. 7-9 NFC West Champs is definitely still on the board, Doc!
Raiders over Broncos
DP: Welcome to the NFL Tim Tebow! Actually Tebow was not terrible, 8-16 for 138 yards and 1 TD plus 78 yards rushing and 1 TD. The Broncos are in a tough spot. Do you hire the best coach available or hire someone that is willing to develop Tebow? The Raiders are now 7-7 and will probably have to settle for the spoiler role now: Indy and @Chiefs. Nice season for the Raiders, but in no way do I believe they are for real. No QB. Weak coach. Terrible drafting.
No depth. No first round pick this year. Sad really.
TJ: Doc, I’ll agree with most of what you said about the Raiders, but they’re in the AFC West, and since the Chiefs obviously can’t play consistently and the Broncos suck, I think the Raiders can still win some games next year. It will come down to whether the Chargers get it together or blow up. I, too, was impressed with Tebow overall. With his work ethic and a full offseason to prepare as a starter, I’ll bet he plays very well next season. Assuming he gets the opportunity.
Bears over Vikings
DP: For some reason it seems I have been wrong about the Bears and Texans more than any two teams in the NFL. When I think they stink, they win. But when I start believing in them again they crap the bed. So of course the Bears go into Minny on a freezing night and clobber the Vikes to win the NFC North. What kind of odds do you think you would have gotten in August that the Bears would be the first team to wrap up their division? 20-1? 30-1? The Bears have the tie breaker over Philly for the #2 seed but still have the Jets and @Packers.
TJ: The Bears did everything right and I give them a lot of credit, but I’ll still put my money on the Pack to beat them in the season finale (assuming the Packers haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs by then). I don’t think the Bears o-line is very good, and their defense is spectacular against one-dimensional offenses, but they can be schemed badly (as the Pats did) while the Packers D cannot (and the Pats had trouble with them). Gotta give Favre credit for playing in this game, but I can’t say I’m sad to see him go out on a low note.
Kansas City over St. Louis
DP: Missouri hasn't been this excited since the Royals-Cards World Series back in the 80s. Matt Cassel comes on but it’s the rushing attack (210 yards on 42 carrries) that lifts the Chiefs to a key road win. KC is still clinging to a one game lead on the Chargers with two home games (Tenn and Oakland) left on the schedule. As for the Rams, my dream of a 7-9 NFC West Division winner is alive! All we need is for the 49ers to beat the Rams next week and the Bucs to beat the Seaskanks.
TJ: The Doc thinks the Chiefs are good again this week? He hasn’t been up and down on anyone this much since he was a Boy Scout. In a way, I hope the Chiefs blow it, because at least the Chargers could be dangerous in the playoffs. I don’t see the Chiefs beating anyone in a big game. Like the Doc, I love what’s happening in the NFC West. I’ll be rooting hard for the 9ers and Bucs next week!
Chargers over 49ers
DP: We will see whether or not the Chiefs fold and let the Chargers win the divsion, but I find the 49ers more interesting. At 5-9 are they the favorite to win the NFC West? All they need to do is win @Rams and beat the Cards then hope the 'Skanks lose one of their last two games (@Bucs and Rams). At this point I would basically give those 3 teams equal odds.
TJ: That statement is amazing: the fact that you can legitimately wonder whether a 5-9 team is the favorite to win their division. The NFL is nuts. Vincent Jackson looked scary in this game, and as I said above, the Chargers could be dangerous in the playoffs. Doc, I know you’d be shitting you drawers if the Colts drew them in the first round.
Indy over Jax
DP: where does Hagler's on-side kick return for a TD rank in the all-time Great Moments in Gambling History rank? Probably just an honorable mention, but still it was a gut punch. Anyway, Indy may not be dominant anymore, but no one else in the AFC South seems consistent enough to step up and take the title from them. As a Colts fan, I will say this. The game @Oakland is much scarier to me than the Jags were this week. Going to the West Coast right after Christmas and racing the Raider's running game is a recipe for disaster. This one will be high on my upset scale.
TJ: Man, Jacksonville showed their true colors, didn’t they? I think the most significant thing about this game may be the loss of Austin Collie. The Colts receiving corps was already in rough shape. This is Collie’s 42nd concussion of the season, so he might be done for a while, and Peyton can’t afford to be without him. I’m with the Doc: the Raiders are likely to knock the Colts out this week.
Jets over Steelers
DP: This game was a lot of fun, especially at the end with the Steelers trying to dive 93 yards to win the game. The Jets were clearly more desperate for the win and it showed. The upset win keeps both the AFC East and AFC North races in doubt with 2 weeks to go. I still expect the Pats to get the #1 seed, but now the Steelers and Ravens are fighting for the #2 seed and a Bye. The loser will get the wild-card and three straight road games to make the Superbowl.
TJ: An important and well-fought game. I don’t know whether the Jets are actually a little better than I thought or the Steelers are a little worse. One thing’s for sure: both these teams will have to do some serious scheming if they want to get past the Pats in the playoffs, because their traditional methods (Ben and Sanchize sitting in the pocket and the defenses blitzing 50% of the time) aren’t going to get it done.
Pats over Packers
DP: I have to give Green Bay a lot of credit, I thought that they would get blown out going on the road with their back-up QB, but they gave the Pats everything they could handle. This now sets up an interesting game next week of Packers (8-6) vs. Giants (9-5). The loser probably has no shot at the Wild-card while the winner will battle Tampa Bay and New Orleans for the two wild card spots.
TJ: The Pack showed how you stay competitive with the Pats. You have to have a fast defense and play ever-changing short and intermediate zones to stop the Pats’ quick-hitting slants and drag routes, and you have to jam those tight ends. It also helps if you can pressure Brady with just four rushers, but that goes without saying. On the other side, they showed that the Pats defense has some minor holes, and if you don’t fall too far behind and can keep the D on the field, you can score on them. The question is, is there another team in the league that can do these things?
Eagles over the Giants
DP: The Game of the Year ended with the Play of the Year. Michael Vick brought his team back from 21 to win in the final seconds as DeSean Jackson ran back a punt for a TD with no time left. The only thing standing between Vick and the league MVP is Tom Brady and a pile of dead dogs. Philly ends the season with two home games and will try to wrestle the #2 seed from the Bears. The NFC still has a lot of intrigue left. There is a big difference for the Bears and Eagles between #2 (Bye and home field in the second round) vs. #3 (and a first round match up with the either the Giants/Packers/Bucs). Also there is a huge difference between WC #1 (and a first round match with the Rams/49ers/'Skanks 'winner') and WC #2 where you get the Bears or Eagles. As for the Giants, this is the type of loss that can absolutely end your season. They had the NFC East and possible #2 seed firmly in hand and then absolutely fell apart. The poor punter will get most of the blame, but everyone (Offense, Defense, and Special Teams) all had to simultaneously choke to let the Eagles come back. If it were anyone else besides the Giants and Eli Manning, I would say that their season is over, but they have proven in the past to handle adversity well. I give the Packers a slight advantage next week, but would not be surprised to see the Giants go into Lambeau and pull out a win.
TJ: Mike Lombardi said it on the BS Report this week: yes, the Giants’ punter made a stupid play, but if their offense had gotten just a single first down on the last drive, they could have wrapped that game up. Instead, they went three and out and made that fateful punt. Through the first three quarters, the Giants dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but they looked gassed in the fourth, and that’s unacceptable for professional athletes. You know who never looks tired? Vick. I think the Pack will kill the Giants this week at Lambeau and knock them out of the picture. And I’m really hoping for a Philly @Atlanta NFC Championship.
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