Week 15

@Rams PK Chiefs

TJ: Two mediocre teams with a lot to play for. If Cassel plays, the Chiefs should win in a high-scoring affair, but if his appendectomy keeps him out another week, I kind of like the Rams to win at home. Cassel started practicing on Wednesday, but even if he’s able to move around and throw, I have to wonder whether he’ll be able to take a hit without bursting like an over-ripe melon. The Rams are capable of getting after the QB (tied for sixth in sacks with 2.8 per game), so I see Cassel starting the game, but not finishing it. Rams are the pick.

DP: I would love to pick the Chiefs, but they are not great on the road and Cassel is still a game time decision. Pick: Rams.

@Titans -1.5 Texans

TJ: I just have no confidence in either of these teams. I’m not sure Fisher’s even trying to win games anymore. With under a minute to play inside the Colts’ 25 and down 9 points, instead of kicking the FG and going for the onside kick, he continues to call plays until they get a TD as time expires. There are only two possible explanations for that: he didn’t want to win, or he’s too stupid to know what the only chance of winning was. Either way, that’s a coach on his way out. I don’t like anything about the Texans, but if they play anything like they played against the Ravens, they ought to win this one. I’ll take the Texans and the points.

DP: The Texans at least still have a little fight left in them and Tenn does not have the passing attack to exploit the porous Houston secondary. Pick: Texans.

@Colts -5 Jags

TJ: I’m surprised the Colts are getting 5 points here because I thought everyone had jumped off their bandwagon. I realize they aren’t the same team that went to the superbowl last year, but I still can’t see them being eliminated from the playoffs at home by the fucking Jags. I think they’ll contain the run just enough, limit Garrard just enough, and make just enough big plays to squeak out a win by a FG. Which means I’m taking the Jags with the points.
DP: Wow, 5 seems like a lot points, I guess they are counting on MJD to be out of this one. I’ve been over this one in my head several times and it keeps coming out close so I’ll take the points. Pick: Jags.

@Panthers -2.5 Cardinals

TJ: How the fuck can the Panthers be favored against a team that scored 43 points last week? Even on the road, I have to think the Cards can score enough to kill this Panthers team, especially since Carolina has the fast track to the #1 pick. I’ll take Phoenix.

DP: The bad news is that there are 3 abysmal match-ups this weekend, the good news is that means the good teams are all playing each other. I don’t even know who the QB’s are in this game, but it can’t be good. Who the hell knows? Pick: Cards.

@Bengals -1.5 Browns

TJ: You’re kidding, right? The Bengals and Panthers are both favored to win this week? I think in the bible this is referred to as the “Retardocalypse.” My Brownies should go into Cincy and rack up 300 yards rushing. They’ll win 7-3.
DP: The second abysmal match-up of the weekend. When in doubt I’ll take the home team. Pick: Bungles.

@Dolphins -5.5 Bills

TJ: Yeah, this line seems about right. The Bills are scrappers and beat my Brownies last week, but it’s hard to see them going on the road to Miami and pulling off another win. Miami needs to get back to their ground game badly, and this is the perfect week to do it. But for some reason, they seem to be intent on forcing Henne to pass 35 times a game, and I can’t imagine they’ll change this late. I think the ‘Phins will win this game, but it should be a close one. Pick: Bills.

DP: I think the ‘Fins stick with their pattern of ‘win-one lose-one’. Pick: Bills.

@Giants -2.5 Eagles

TJ: Tied at the top of the division at 9-4, both of these teams really want this one. Last time they me, Philly won by 10 points at home, but they looked even more dominant than the score indicated. I think the Giants pass rush has improved since then (4.0 sacks per game last three weeks, 2.7 over the first ten weeks), but Vick’s pocket presence is amazing, and I expect him to play well. It’ll come down to the Giants establishing the run and avoiding turnovers to keep the Philly offense off the field. I don’t think they can do it, so I’ll take Philly and the points.

DP: We have seen at least 3 intra-division rematches recently between teams fighting for control of the division. In each case (Pats over Jets, Steelers over Ravens, and Chargers over Chiefs), the loser of the first game won the second game to get a split. We have two more games like that this weekend. First was Colts-Jags and now Giants-Eagles. I think Tom Coughlin is a good coach and will find a way to contain Vick the second time around. Pick: Giants.

@Cowboys -6 Redskins

TJ: Too bad such a great rivalry has no playoff implications at this point in the season. I think the Redskins are a mess from the bottom up, and the Cowboys always get up for this game. A win against the ‘Skins at home could be their signature win this season and maybe get interim coach Jason Garrett a promotion to permanent head coach. Cowboys cover.

DP: Two words: Rex Grossman. Pick: ‘Boys.

@Bucs -5.5 Lions

TJ: Like the Bills, the Lions have impressed me with their recent scrappiness, but travelling to Florida to play a decent team is tough. The Bucs are 8-5. Their five losses? Steelers, Saints, Ravens, Falcons x2. My point is that the Bucs haven’t lost to bad teams, and I don’t see them starting this week. Bucs cover.

DP: Sometimes a team just gains confidence as the year goes on, you can see that with this Bucs team. As for the Lions? Not so much. Pick: Bucs.

@Ravens -1.5 Saints

TJ: This should be a great game. Both teams are deep in the Wild Card hunt, and both trail in their divisions by only one game. Since losing to the Bungles in Week 2, all three Ravens losses were to good teams by 5 points or less, which is impressive. Looking at it from the opposite perspective, in the last nine weeks, they’re 6-3 but their six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 27-51. They need to beat a good team to convince me they’re ready for the playoffs, so this week is a big test for them. The Saints have won six straight, and though many of them have been against crap teams, they did beat the Steelers by 10 and ended that Cowboys win streak (and their slim playoff hopes) with a win in Dallas. I think this is the signature win for the Saints, and they get it done in Baltimore.

DP: The Ravens gave up 4th quarter leads in all four losses plus another two overtime wins. That is 6 times the Ravens D was unable to a lead. Look for Drew Brees to rally the troops late. Pick: Saints.

Falcons -6 @Seahawks

TJ: I know the Seaskanks can play well at home, but this Atlanta team is fierce and well-coached. I think they’ll kill Seattle and keep the Doc’s 7-9 NFC West Winner dream alive. Falcons cover.

DP: I will try not to out smart myself on this one. Pick: Falcons.

@Steelers -6 Jets

TJ: A few weeks ago this would have been a marquee matchup. Now? Both teams were bent over and violated by the Patriots, the Steelers needed OT to beat the Bills, and the Jets couldn’t handle Miami at home. I think the key to this game is whether Rothlisburger is mobile enough to handle the 400 different blitzes Rex Ryan is going to call against him this week. If he can get the ball away and keep the offense moving a bit, the Steelers defense should hold the Jets O to zero production. If Big Ben throws a couple picks and fumbles the ball away while getting sacked, the Jets can capitalize and make something happen. Seems like a stretch to me, so I’ll take Pittsburgh to handle this one easily at home.

DP: Troy Polamalu is out and I remember what happened to the Pitt D last year when he was gone. I like the Jets to at least keep it close. Pick: Jets.

@Raiders -7 Denver

TJ: Denver is really horrible. I loved the Raiders’ running game against the Jags last week, and I fully expect it to carry over against a weak Denver defense. I’d have taken Oakland if this line were 10, so it’s an easy pick at 7 points.
DP: I can’t believe the Raiders are only getting 7 at home against Tim Tebow and a Broncos team that has quit. Pick: Raiders.

@Pats -12 Packers

TJ: Even if Rodgers plays (and it doesn’t look like he will), the Pats look like they might be too much for anyone to handle. I love the Packers defense (giving up less than 9 points per game over the last six weeks), and I think they’ll limit the Pats more than any other team has since my beloved Dog Pound Defense held them to 14 points six weeks ago. I just don’t think it will be enough to win. I DO think it’ll be enough to cover the 12 points, though. Pack.

DP: I made the mistake of going against the Pats last week and I won’t do it again. Aaron Rodgers is out and the Pack has no running game to fall back on. Pick: Pats.

Bears -7 @Vikings (sort of)

TJ: Outside in Minny with playoff implications for the Bears. This should be a good one, even if I have to put up with Brett Favre and his bullshit media circus. I expect the Bears to bounce back from that embarrassing beat-down the Pats handed them last week, and I expect that Bears pass rush to make poor Tavaris Jackson turn over more balls than Jenna Haze in “Meatguzzler Part 8.” I’ll lay the 7 and take the Bears.
DP: Since I expect this game to end 3-2, I guess I should take the points. Pick: Vikings.