Week 8 Picks

San Francisco  -2   Denver (At London)

DP: How can we export a game prominently featuring Troy Smith vs. Kyle Orten? Being subjected to this game would probably make want to watch soccer. I like the Broncos. I realize the Raiders blew out the Broncos last, but still I have no idea why the 49ers are favored. Pick: Broncos.

TJ:  After last week’s bed-wetting against the Raiders, I guess I can understand why the Broncos would be underdogs at a neutral site.  Plus, San Fran (1-6) has four losses of 4 points or less, so I can see an argument for favoring them.  But they lost to Carolina last week.  Carolina is epically bad!  I can see no way to take San Fran and give points.  I hate to do it, but I’ll take the Broncos here.

At Dallas       -6.5     Jacksonville

DP: I hear that Jax QB David Garrard is back, for this game. 6.5 seems like a lot of points for John Kitna to cover. Pick: Jags.

TJ:  Now, you all know I hate the Jags.  But they’ve won three games, one of which was against a very good Indy team, and though their D sucks, they have a decent run game.  Dallas is out of the playoffs, and is starting John Kitna at QB.  In 2001, Kitna was a 5-year vet, 3-year starter and 27 years old; his stats: 16 games, 12 TDs, 22 INTs, 61 QB rating, a train wreck by any measure.  He is now 38 years old.  You’re telling me he’s going to be anything but fucking horrible?  I’ll take the Jags and the points.

At Detroit      -2.5     Washington

DP: This is a bit of shocker, I would have thought the Redskins would get more love than this. Anyway, the Skins have a history of letting down on the road especially considering they have a BYE and then the Philly re-match. The Skins will not want to show too much before an important division game and they actually didn’t play that well last week (they barely beat the Bears despite 4 INTs by Cutler). Pick: Lions.

TJ:  It’s hard to call this a “must-win” game for 4-3 Washington, but if they can’t win in Detroit, it’s hard to imagine them keeping pace with Philly and the Giants.  How Detroit is getting points, though, I have no idea.  Yes, they have a bunch of close losses and they blew out a young Rams team at home, but to be 1-5 and giving points to a winning team makes no sense to me.  I’ll take the ‘Skins to win a close game.

At NY Jets    -6         Green Bay

DP: Nice break down yesterday on the radio about how the Jets are second in the league in allowing the most TDs off of blitzes (7). All of last year they gave up only 2. This game will swing on whether or not Aaron Rodgers can counter strike the Jets pass rush with long TDs. I think they are still too banged up, going on the road after a big win against the Vikes. Pick: Jets.

TJ: Green Bay is 4-3, but all three of their losses are by three points each, and two were in OT.  I know they’re banged up, but this seems like a resilient bunch to me.  The Jets have looked very good this season, but I think their 5-game win streak ends here.  I’ll take Green Bay to keep it closer than 6 points.

At St. Louis  -3         Carolina

DP: Vegas is not showing much love for the Rams who only get 3 at home (essentially saying the two teams are even). St. Louis is 3-1 at home and are desperate to win since 4 out of the next 5 are on the road. Does Carolina’s win last week signal they have turned things around. Nah. Pick: Rams.

TJ:  A crappy game, but St. Louis seems to play well at home, and I think last week might be the Panthers’ only win of the season.  I think the Rams cover, and then some.

At Cincinnati            -1.5     Miami

DP: I hate the Bengals and will love to pick against them as often as possible. Pick: Fins.

TJ:  Now is the time for the ‘Phins to get back on track against a crappy Bengals team, but I’m not sure they have it in them.  Cincy’s offense has been hit-or-miss (Palmer’s passer ratings: 92, 60, 53, 121, 58, 116), but I think they might find some green spots against the Miami defense.  I’ll take the Bengals to win at home by a field goal.

At Kansas City        -7.5     Buffalo

DP: I gave up on my KC love last week and paid for it. Can they keep Ryan Fitzpatrick from blowing the cover with a late TD? I think so. Pick: Chiefs.

TJ:  KC (1^st in the league in rushing) hung 42 on a slightly shitty Jags defense.  What will they do to an ungodly shitty Bills D (last in the league against the run)?  This could get ugly.  KC by more than 7.5.  Maybe more than 75!

At San Diego           -3.5     Tennessee

DP: Another odd line. I guess people are assuming the Chargers will turn things around or the Titans will fold on the road. Personally, I like the Titans D and think they have no problem crossing the country to easily handle the Chargers. Pick: Titans.

TJ:  The Chargers have played well at home, and their D is really OK when measured by yardage (1^st against the pass, 4^th against the run).  They’re only two wins behind the division-leading Chiefs, so they still have something to play for.  But the Titans have won convincingly on the road against the Giants, Cowboys and Jags, and they seem to be getting their offense in gear (averaging 31 points over the last 5 games).  I think the Titans will win outright, so I’ll definitely take them with the points.

At Arizona     -3         Tampa Bay

DP: Who the hell knows? Pick: Tampa.

TJ:  On Thursday morning, I listened to Mike and Mike interview the Tampa coach, Raheem Morris.  Man, that dude said all the right things, and got me straight fired up about the Bucs’ future.  I still don’t think they can win the division, and even a Wild Card seems tough, but I sure think they can go into Arizona and beat the hell out of an awful Cardinals team (trying to decide between Max Hall and Derek Anderson for God’s sake!).  Bucs are the pick.

At Oakland   -2.5     Seattle

DP: Don’t overreact to last week’s blow out win. The Raiders aren’t that good and are probably looking ahead to next week’s game with the Chiefs. Pick: ‘Hawks.

TJ:  Who the hell are the Seahawks?  They’re 4-2 and won handily in Chicago, but managed only 3 points against the Rams three weeks ago.  For that matter, who the hell are the Raiders?  They hung 59 on Denver on the road (a franchise record), but scored only 9 points against San Fran?!?  The West is wacky, both AFC and NFC, and this game is a huge stay-away.  Since I have to pick, I’ll reluctantly take the Seahawks and the points.

At New England      -6.5     Minnesota

DP: Sal Palantonio did a nice job yesterday breaking down the Pats Offense. Basically, with teams no longer able to hit WRs after 5 yards, they are relying a lot more on the pass rush. The Pats have responded by getting 3 quick slot receivers (Welker, Woodhead, and Edleman) and getting rid of the ball quickly with 3 and 5 man drops. Any Minny is a mess and there is no way to bet against the Pats in any game that may feature Tavaris Jackson. Pick: Pats.

TJ:  This line seems too low.  I know Minny’s desperate, and the Pats haven’t been as consistent as they could be this year, but Favre is hurt (if he plays at all), and the Pats smell blood.  I’ll bank on Billy and Tommie to have a decent game plan in place and capitalize on the inevitable Viking mistakes.  Pats to cover.

At New Orleans       -1         Pittsburgh

DP: The Saints offense is not right and I don’t think playing the Steelers will help much. Pick: Pitt.

TJ:  I’ve lost faith in the Saints.  That probably means this is their week to turn things around and pound a good team, but I’m going to go with what my eyes tell me: Pittsburgh +1 is a lock against anybody, especially the reeling Saints.

At Indianapolis        -5.5     Houston

DP: Really, the only interesting/meaningful game of the week except for maybe Jets/Packers. Both teams are 4-2, although Houston has already beat Indy once. Indy can spilt the season series with Houston to go 5-2. Houston meanwhile could go a game up on the Colts and win the season series essentially earning a 2 game lead on the Colts. Indy has A LOT of injuries and just lost Dallas Clark, but they are coming off the BYE week so they will be a bit more rested. I like the Colts, but not by 5.5. Pick: Texans.

TJ:  I’d call this a revenge game if I actually thought Houston was even on Indy’s radar.  I think the Colts have bigger fish to fry, and will treat this game like just another bump on the road to the playoffs.  They jump out to an early lead, neutralize Houston’s run game, and win big at home, maybe 38-14.

5 Questions for Week 8

This week, the Doc is asking the questions, and he went NFL-Draft-History Crazy.  All my answers are in blue font.  Let’s go!

QBs - *=star, s = starter, b = bust.

1998- Peyton Manning (*) , Ryan Leaf (b)

1999- Tim Couch (b), Donovan McNabb (*), Akili Smith (b), Duante Culpepper (s), Cade McNown (b)

2000- Chad Pennington (s)

2001- Michael Vick (s)

2002- David Carr (b), Joey Harrington (b), Patrick Ramsey (b)

2003- Carson Palmer (s), Byron Leftwich (b), Kyle Boller (b), Rex Grossman (b)

2004- Eli Manning (s/*), Phillip Rivers (s/*), Ben Roethlisberger (*), JP Losman (b)

2005- Alex Smith (b), Aaron Rodgers (s/*), Jason Campbell (s)

2006- Vince Young (s), Matt Leinart (b), Jay Cutler (s)

2007- Jamarcus Russell (b), Brady Quinn (b)

2008- Matt Ryan (s), Joe Flacco (s)

2009- Matthew Stafford (s), Mark Sanchez (s), Josh Freeman (s)

1998-2003:

6 starters or stars = worth the pick

10 busts = regret the pick

6/16 = 38%

2004-2009:

11 stars or starters = worth the pick

5 busts = regret the pick

12/17 = 71%

1.      Given the expense of picking a franchise QB in the first round, why is it so difficult to evaluate a player’s talent?

There are huge differences in how football is played and in the general athleticism at each level, and this makes performance at one level sometimes unrelated to performance at the next level.  Here’s what I mean: a very talented college athlete on a team that is athletically superior at all position compared to almost all their opponents (say Jamarcus Russell at LSU) can look great in college games without putting forth total effort off the field.  He may not work hard in the weight room, he may be poor at film study and understanding of the offensive scheme, he may not take physical preparation seriously (partying the night before the game, eating or sleeping poorly, etc), but he’s talented enough (and his line and receivers are talented enough) that he still looks golden on gamedays.  However, when he arrives in the pros (Jamarcus with the Raiders), the offensive scheme is 10 times more complicated, defensive fronts and coverages are 10 times harder to read and exploit, and everyone else on the field is as athletic as he is.  All the advantages he had (that made him such a great prospect) are gone, and all his flaws (that were hidden from evaluators by his college situation) are now exposed.  Nobody knew until they saw him at the NFL level, and he’s a bust.

2.      What happened to QB evaluation and development that we jump from 38% to 71%? (without 2009 its still 9/14 for 64%)?

Some of this can, of course, be written off to chance.  But I think the difference might actually be significant due to two things: changes in the evaluation process, and changes in the college game.  Basically, teams spend more money and hire more experts to evaluate potential players than they did before.  And, with the internet, all information has become more readily available, so that every aspect of the draftees life can be evaluated in excruciating detail (behavior in high school, family life, metrics on strength and speed and performance, video of workouts, etc,  are all available on-line for the more famous first-round candidates).  In college, the offenses at many schools have become much more sophisticated and NFL-like, providing the opportunity to evaluate a potential pro QB’s college performance as almost a preview of the professional abilities.  This isn’t true at schools that run non-pro-style offenses (like Navy’s option offense), but it’s becoming more true in general.

Wide Receivers (Stars in BOLD)

1996- Keyshawn Johnson (#1), Terry Glenn (#7), Marvin Harrison (#19), Terrell Owens (#89)

1997- Ike Hillard (#7)

1998- Randy Moss (#21), Hines Ward (#92)

1999- Torry Holt (#6), David Boston (#8)

2000- Peter Warrick (#4), Plaxico Burress (#8), Travis Taylor (#10),

2001- David Terrell (#8), Koren Robinson (#9), Reggie Wayne (#30), Chad Johnson (#6), Steve Smith (#74)

2002- none

2003- Charles Rogers (#2), Andre Johnson (#3),  Anquan Boldin (#54)

2004- Larry Fitzgerald (#3), Roy Williams (#7), Reggie Williams (#9)

2005- Braylon Edwards (#3), Troy Williamson (#7), Mike Williams (#10)

2006- Greg Jennings (#52), Brandon Marshall (#119), Marques Colston (#252)

2007- Calvin Johnson (#2), Ted Ginn Jr (#9)

2008- Desean Jackson (#49)

2009- Darius Heyward Bay (#7), Michael Crabtree (#10)

Since 1996 only 4/22 WR’s chosen in the top 10 became stars. Of the top 14 WR’s chosen since 1996 only 4 came in the top 10.

3.      Why is it so difficult to predict the success of wide receivers?

This is similar to question one, in that the answer is simply that the college and pro games aren’t equivalent, and the quality of a player’s teammates and opponents can inflate or deflate his apparent performance at this level.  Wide receivers are different from QB’s, though, in that brains and work ethic are more essential for a QB and raw athleticism is more essential for a receiver.  Obviously, work ethic and brains help a receiver a lot (see Jerry Rice), and raw athleticism can make an otherwise lackluster QB a star (Mike Vick, Randall Cunningham, and Ben Rothlisberger).  But overall, you know a headcase college QB won’t make it as a pro, while a headcase college WR is harder to judge and might be pretty good (Randy Moss got thrown out of FSU for smoking weed and was a problem-child at Marshall as well).

4.      Why are so many wide receivers still chosen in the top 10?

You’re asking the wrong guy, because I’d always take the best O- or D-lineman, linebacker, DB, or running back before I’d take a QB or WR.  I’m old-school, but I say defense and running game come first, then the passing game can emerge.  Asshats like Matt Millen can draft receivers in the first round for 17 straight years and still have shitty teams, so I don’t understand it.  Maybe it’s economics: do marquee receiver draft choices sell more season tickets prior to their rookie seasons?  More jerseys from the team store?  Seems to me winning would be smarter in the long run, but I think some owners are retarded in their priorities.

RB- Top Pick/Best Pick

1998- Curtis Enis (#5)/ Fred Taylor (#9)

1999- Edgerrin James (#4)/ Edgerrin James (#4)

2000- Jamal Lewis (#5)/ Shaun Alexander (#19)

2001- Ladanian Tomlonson (#5)/ Ladanian Tomlonson (#5)

2002- William Green (#16)/ Clinton Portis (#51)

2003- Willis McGahee (#23)/ Larry Johnson (#27)

2004- Steven Jackson (#24)/ Steven Jackson (#24

2005- Ronnie Brown (#2)/ Best? Who knows? Cedric Benson (#4), Frank Gore (#65), Marian Barber (#109), and Brandon Jacobs (#110) were all chosen.

2006- Reggie Bush (#2)/ Maurice Jones-Drew (#60)

2007-  Adrian Peterson (#7)/ Adrian Peterson (#7)

2008- Darren McFadden (#4)/ Chris Johnson (#24)

2009- Knowshon Moreno (#12)/ LeSean McCoy (#54)

5.      Overall star RBs are being chosen later and having less of an impact in the league. Is this due to changes in the rules that now favor on the passing game or something else?

The rule changes are part of it, but I think there are two other main reasons.  First: longevity; the average superstar NFL RB can only handle a couple seasons of punishment before breaking down.  These guys are bigger and faster than ever, but that means they also take more and bigger hits from the bigger and faster defenders.  When a back gets more than 350 carries in a season, the next season almost always shows a huge dropoff, I guess because the human body can only stand so much abuse.  The second reason is the emergence of the “running back by platoon.”  Lots of teams now have multiple featured RBs who all see significant playing time.  This may be related to the first reason (to reduce the number of carries for your star), or because teams use differently talented guys situationally.  They may have one back for first and second down (the bruising runner), and one for passing situations (the smaller guy with better hands, who might also be smarter and better at blitz pickup and blocking).  In all cases, it adds up to individual running backs becoming less valuable than they were a decade ago (with some exceptions, like Peterson or Chris Johnson), and thus getting drafted later.

Recipe of the Week: Hypodermic Needle Apples

This recipe is a variation of the old Halloween favorite Razor-Blade Apples.

I prefer the use of hypodermic needles because it has a much smaller entry point making detection much more difficult. Plus the use of a hypodermic needle adds a second level of terror. For instance, what was the hypodermic needle used for before being placed in the apple? Was it used to inject heroin into the veins of an HIV-ravaged drug addict? Was it used to transfer a highly toxic chemotherapeutic agent?

Ingredients:
Apples, preferably a darker skinned variety. Helps minimize the entry point.
Hypodermic needles. I prefer a larger bore variety like a 14 gauge needle. Holds up better.

Insert needle firmly into apple as deeply as possible. Be Creative! Worm holes make a nice entry point.

Optional: Carmel or Candy coating helps cover the apple and avoid detection!

Happy Halloween!

Week 7 Analysis

DP: This is one of those weeks where strange shit just happens and all you can do is scratch your head. We'll rank every game on the Head Scratching Scale where 1 equals 'minor itch' and 10 equals 'large bald spots'.

TJ: I resent any mention of ‘large bald spots.’  Dick.

Atlanta over Cincinnati- 2.

DP: Not much to say about this game. It was good to see Atlanta take care of business, but it’s not a good sign if they are the best team in the NFC. As for Cincy? Who cares?

TJ: With New Orleans blowing up, Atlanta’s playoff hopes just jumped through the roof.  Good run game, good defense, and solid QB play.  Sounds like a winner to me.  Too bad they’d be about the 6^th best team in the AFC.  Cincy is more like the 18^th best team in the AFC.  (Yes, I know the AFC only has 16 teams.)

Tennessee over Philly- 3.

DP: I watched a large part of this game it was closer than the final score revealed. Philly actually moved the ball fairly well, and Tenn did not pull away until late. I think Tenn will push Indy for the AFC South (especially with the injuries piling up for the Colts) and might even challenge Balt/Pitt/NE/Jets for a wildcard. Philly has really impressed me with the relatively smooth transition from McNabb to Kolb. I think they will continue to challenge the Giants for the NFC East and could really be a contender in the next few years. Perhaps the most surprising thing of all was seeing how beefed up Ed Hochuli has become. That guy is ripped.

TJ: These are both good teams.  I think the Doc is right, they’ll both push their division leaders and be Wild Card contenders.  Neither is a threat to win the Superbowl this season, and I think Philly has a brighter future than Tennessee (I think the Titans’ window closed a couple years ago, when they let their best defenders go).  It’ll be interesting to see how things go when Vick is healthy.

Carolina over San Fran- 6.

DP: Normally a one loss team traveling across the country and getting beat by a win-less team wouldn't be that weird. San Fran built up a lead with the embattled Alex Smith who was later knocked out of the game. In comes David Carr (who 49er fans had be calling for) who promptly goes 5/13 including a crippling INT late in the 4th quarter that allowed Matt Moore to lead a comeback win. Anytime you can feature 3 crappy QBs in one game, it’s got to be weird.

TJ: This was the proverbial Pooperbowl.  They could have released a different wild animal onto the field every 4 minutes and I still wouldn’t have watched.  I thought really highly of Singletary’s prospects as a head coach, but now I’m not so sure.  Maybe he’ll be like a lot of the best NFL coaches, though, and not have success until his second job.

Washington over the Bears- 7.

DP: Aren't Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler supposed to be above average QBs? McNabb went 17/32, for 200 yards and 1 TD against 2 INT. Jay Cutler meanwhile was even worse going 26/40 for 281 yards and 1 TD, but he threw 4 INTs all to Deangelo Hall including a Pick-6. He also managed to get sacked 4 times and give up a fumble as well. What an ugly game.

TJ: The Bears’ offensive line should be ashamed of themselves, and so should Cutler.  He needs to learn to throw the fucking ball out of bounds when his receivers are covered, and the line needs to give him more than 0.45 nanoseconds before he gets his ass obliterated.  The Redskins still seem like pretenders to me, but in the NFC, hell, a pretender could make the superbowl!

KC over Jacksonville- 3.

DP: You can't be too surprised when a team led by Todd Bouman gets beat by 22. What is surprising is that KC looks like the clear leaders for the AFC West. With San Diego and Denver losing again, Oakland is now in second place. The Chiefs have a nice balanced offense and a lively D. Start printing those play-off tickets Chief fans!

TJ: I’ve hated this Jags team forever, and that ain’t changing, but my hate for the Chiefs is starting to fade.  They just keep winning easy games, and their schedule is still chock full of easy games.  I think the Doc is right again, the Chiefs are going to win the West.  Of course, some Wild Card team like the Ravens/Jets/Steelers/Pats is then going to serve them their own asses on a stick in the first round, but hey, at least they’ll host a playoff geme!

Pittsburgh over Miami- Solid 8.

DP: I thought replay was supposed to correct bad calls, but in this case it made things worse. Haven't we learned that in the world of Instant Replay we should play every down out to the end? Pitt should ride the momentum of this game to a solid 12 or 13 win season. This just doesn't look like Miami's year.

TJ: I’m disappointed in both teams.  The ‘Phins really needed this win to stay competitive, and they just couldn’t close it out.  What happened to the “Wildcat” and all the offensive creativity?  You can’t beat good teams running a vanilla offense with Chad Henne at QB.  If the Steelers are the real deal, they need to blow out teams like the Dolphins, not sneak by on lucky calls. 

Baltimore over Buffalo (OT)- 8.

DP: Buff giving up 37 is not that surprising, but who would have suspected Ryan Fitzpatrick would shred the Ravens top-notch pass defense for 374 yards and 4 TDs? Maybe I was wrong about Fitzpatrick, he clearly has something going for him. Still, Buffalo is the only winless team left and seems destined for the top pick. I would love to see them draft Andrew Luck from Stanford to go with Harvard boy Fitzpatrick. They could be called the Wonderlick-Twins.

TJ: The Ravens better not play that badly against anybody in their division.  Even the Browns and Bengals could have beaten the Ravens squad that showed up on Sunday.  Ray Lewis better ask that talking bear from his Old Spice commercial how to fucking tackle, because he and his boys all looked like they forgot against the Bills.  Sorry, Dan and Jen, the Bills still suck.

Cleveland over New Orleans- 10.

DP: Where to start on this one? Look at these stats and tell me what would make you think "Blow out win": Brown's QB Colt McCoy is 9/16 for 74 yards. Running back Peyton Hillis gets 69 yards and 16 carries while Brown's Punter Reggie Hodges gets 68 yards on 1 carry? That’s the entire offensive production for the Browns. Meanwhile, New Orleans outgains the Browns 394 to 210 (of which 68 yards are from a fake punt). I guess it takes Drew Brees throwing 4 INTs including 2 Pick-6's to make up for the Brown's anemic performance. The Saints have now thrown away 3 games (missed FG against Atlanta, 2 return TDs against the Cardinals and 2 return TDs to the Browns).

TJ: I’d be really excited if the Browns hadn’t blown too many close games early to support a mini-Wild-Card-run at this point in the season.  Turnovers are so capricious.  Last season, they made the Saints 13-3.  This season, they’ve stolen multiple games from them.  I still think the Saints are a playoff team, especially in the NFC, but they really need to protect the ball and get their run game going (15 carries for 48 yards for Ivory against a weak Cleveland D.  And this is the guy who blew up against the Tampa defense last week?).

Tampa Bay over St. Louis- 2.

DP: The Rams are a nice story, but probably can't keep up in the NFC West. Tampa is a nice story but probably can't keep up in the NFC South. The only surprising thing here is that this game has a little bit of meaning.

TJ: If Tampa makes the playoffs, I’ll lose my mind (and Josh Freeman will lose his virginity).  4-2 is a terrific record for this team, and they have Arizona, Carolina, and San Fran in three of their next four.  Easy to see them at 7-3, and needing to go 3-3 over their last six for a Wild Card (and in those six, they have very winnable home games against Detroit and Seattle).  The Rams might be a good team in a few years, but they need to win games like this to get there.

Seattle over Arizona- 4.

DP: The game itself played out fairly predictably, but the side notes are interesting. Derek Anderson coming back in for Max Hall. Seattle with Pete Caroll making a move to win the NFC West. With San Fran picking up loss #6, that means that only St. Louis and Arizona stand between the Seaskanks and the playoffs.

TJ: The Seaskanks?  Doc, you’re a fucking genius.  Yeah, I like what Seattle’s been doing. They have some tough games coming, but they play their toughest opponents at home (Giants, Chiefs, and Falcons), where they have a distinct advantage.  They should win the West, but they can’t make playoff noise, can they?  Meanwhile, the Cardinals continue their decent into oblivion.  Sorry, but I don’t see them improving in the next couple years, either, Cards fans.  Both of you.

Oakland over Denver- 10.

DP: This is a solid head scratching 10. Last week Denver plays the NY Jets tough and should have won. Oakland squeezes 9 points out of Jason Campbell in losing to the 49ers. This week? The Raiders go up 38-0 half way through the second period. Denver gives up 328 yards rushing and makes Darren McFadden look like Eric Dickerson. I seriously doubt the Raiders can put together a winning season and the Chargers and Broncos already have 5 losses. The path is clear for the Chiefs to win the West.

TJ: What the fuck?  Seriously!?!  Is this what the Raiders would be capable of every week if not for inept coaching and clinically deceased ownership?  The Broncos are in a tailspin that started in week seven LAST SEASON! And as for Josh McDaniels, well, if it looks like a smarmy little douchebag, talks like a smarmy little douchebag, and walks like a smarmy little douchebag, the win-loss record will eventually reveal it to be smarmy little douchebag. 

New England over San Diego- 5.

DP: The result wasn’t that weird, but I was a little surprised Bill Belichek lost faith in his defense again. Up by 3 late in the 4th quarter, he goes for it on 4th and 1 (with a questionable run instead of a Brady to Branch pass) and gives the ball back to the Chargers. How does San Diego respond with new hope and their season on the line? Missed FG. Probably the most symbolic play of the season.

TJ: I was far from shocked that the Pats would go for it under those conditions, Doc.  That’s always been their M.O., but the shocking thing was that (as you mentioned) they called that weak-ass Veer run.  They’d rushed for only 51 yards all day, and that particular run was slow-hitting and easy to read.  A strange combination of aggressive philosophy with conservative playcalling.  I still like New England to make the playoffs, but I think the Chargers are totally done.  Also, I can’t see Norv being invited back next year.  Coach Gruden, wouldn’t you like to live in Southern California again?

Green Bay over Minn- 4.

DP: You can never be too surprised by Brett Favre throwing 3 INTs. Green Bay gets a much needed win as they try to hold it together until they get their injured players back. Minnesota meanwhile throws away (literally) a chance to catch Green Bay and is looking forward to a trip to New England next weekend, yikes. 2-5 here we come!

TJ: The Doc is right again, the Vikes are in trouble.  They needed this win, and Favre’s broken ankle means he’s either going to miss next week (putting the Vikes’ season in the hands of Tarvaris Jackson), or he’s going to cough up a few more ugly ducklings to that New England defense.  We started the season thinking the NFC North was the class of the Conference, and now the winner of this division might limp into a first round loss.  On the other hand, maybe the Pack gets healthy and will peak just in time for the playoffs.  Stranger things have happened.

NY Giants over Dallas- 8.

DP: Again the Giants beating the Cowboys is not that strange by itself, but the way the game unfolded was interesting. Dallas, fighting for their season, built a 10-0 lead on the Giants after 2 Eli Manning INTs. The Giants get a TD to make it 10-7 and then Tony Romo goes down with a broken clavicle. Miraculously, the Cowboys build up a 20-7 lead. So how does the Cowboy Defense respond with the season on the line and the back-up QB in the game? By giving up 31 straight points and effectively ending their season. Spending $600 on Cowboys-Saints tickets for Thanksgiving suddenly doesn’t look like such a great move anymore. Somehow, how the Giants give up 5 turnovers (3 INTs and 2 fumbles) plus a punt return for a TD and come out of the game as The Best Team in the NFC. I guess this is the kind of crap that passes for a good team in the NFC. Damn, I wish I would have put money on AFC -3 to win the Superbowl before the season.

TJ: This whole season has been an inexcusable clusterfuck for the Cowboys, and it goes all the way from ownership (could you have hyped the new stadium and Superbowl and pressured the team a little more, Jerry?), to the coaching staff (Jesus Christ, Wade, do you even give a shit about discipline or preparation?), to the players (averaging 9 penalties per game, and many of them stupid, dead-ball, selfish crap penalties).  Romo’s season is over, even if he’s back in 6 weeks.  The Giants are the team to beat in the NFC East, but they still haven’t played Philly or Washington yet, so that could change rapidly.  I really like their receivers, and Eli seems to have his shit together this year, but it’s not beyond any Coughlin-led team to blow it down the stretch.  One thing is for sure, watching this season shake out will be massively entertaining!

Bonus NBA Coverage: Who should be contracted?

Stern said he wants to cut NBA salaries by $700-800 million (about 1/3). If the players don't agree, contraction is an option. I consider contraction a small, but realistic possibility in the NBA where teams are actually losing money. So the league currently has 30 teams, I think cutting 6 teams to get to 24 seems most realistic.

This is from Forbes last year on the teams currently losing money:
"But the real news is likely that 12 NBA teams -- some 40 percent of the league's franchises -- are reported to have lost money last season. The biggest losers happen to be winners: Paul Allen's Blazers are reported to have lost $20 million, and the Mavericks are reported to have lost $17 million. Three other winning teams lost money (Orlando, Atlanta, New Orleans), but the rest of the deficit contingent is made up of the league's worst squads of a year ago (Pacers, Bobcats, Nets, Bucks, Grizzlies, Wolves, Kings)."

I think we can safely say the NBA is viable in Dallas, Portland, and Orlando. Those teams have rich owners willing to lose money to support a winning franchise. I think the Nets will be fine as well.

So of the remaining cities: Atlanta, New Orleans, Indy, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Memphis, Minnesota, and Sacramento. Pick 6 to kill. THEN make a little rank list of the top 24 players on those teams that would get picked up by the remaining 24 franchises.

TJ: My kill list:
1. Memphis. I lived there for four years and never met anyone who’d been to a Grizzlies game.
2. Sacramento. Unless they moved to Vegas, I simply can’t think of a reason for this team to exist.
3. Charlotte. Why the hell did they get a team again? I mean, they sucked as the Hornets fans, and they suck as the Bobcats fans. Incidently, they also suck as Panthers fans.
4. Milwaukee. Do any of the “fans” ever look up from their brats and cheese long enough to realize there are sports besides football? Hey, I’m not really ragging on them, I often do the same thing.
5. Indiana. I know this is the heartland of basketball, but more people are interested in good High School ball there than NBA ball.
6. New Orleans. Sad to do this, but it’s the Saints town, and the people there just don’t care about any other team.

Players:
1. New Jersey- Chris Paul
2. Minnesota - Andrew Bogut (have you seen the effort this guy has made with fans? If it were anyone but Paul at the top, I’d have ranked the Aussie first.)
3. Washington - Gerald Wallace,
4. Philly - Tyreke Evans
5. Golden State - Brandon Jennings
6. Detroit- Danny Granger (Maybe he should go higher, he can really score. I just wanted him on Detroit because he fits with their crappy new style.)
7. LA Clippers- Demarcus Cousins (Can you imagine him on the same frontcourt as Blake Griffith? The Clips could be monsters for a decade!)
8. NY Knicks- OJ Mayo
9. Toronto- Zach Randolph
10. Houston- David West
11. Chicago- Emeka Okafor
12. Miami- Marc Gasol
13. San Antonio- Rudy Gay
14. OK City- Stephen Jackson (I bet he could suppress the crazy with all the great young kids here)
15. Portland- Samuel Dalembert
16. Utah- Carl Landry
17. Atlanta- Boris Diaw
18. Denver- Troy Murphy
19. Phoenix- Tyler Hansbrogh (His scrappy whiteness fits with Nash?)
20. Dallas- Mike Conley
21. Orlando- Trevor Ariza
22. Cleveland- John Salmons
23. Boston- Carlos Delfino
24. LA Lakers- Roy Hibbert

DP: So of the remaining cities: Atlanta, New Orleans, Indy, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Memphis, Minnesota, and Sacramento. Pick 6 to kill. THEN make a little rank list of the top 24 players on those teams that would get picked up by the remaining 24 franchises.

I would kill the following teams:
1. Memphis. No explanation needed.
2. Sacramento. Ditto.
3. Minnesota. No history expect for bad management.
4. New Orleans. Just not enough Corporations and professionals to support the team.
5. Charlotte. College basketball area. No history.
6. Milwaukee. Ultimately just not a viable market.

Players.

1. New Jersey- Chris Paul
2. Washington- Tyreke Evans
3. Philly- Andrew Bogut
4. Golden State- Gerald Wallace
5. Detroit- Zach Randolph
6. LA Clippers- OJ Mayo
7. NY Knicks- Brandon Jennings
8. Indy- Kevin Love
9. Toronto- David West
10. Houston- The rights to Ricky Rubio
11. Chicago- Demarcus Cousins
12. Miami- Emeka Okafor,
13. San Antonio- Rudy Gay
14. OK City- Marc Gasol
15. Portland- Samuel Dalembert
16. Utah- Carl Landry
17. Atlanta- Stephen Jackson
18. Denver- Boris Diaw
19. Phoenix- Jonny Flynn
20. Dallas- Mike Conley
21. Orlando- Trevor Ariza
22. Cleveland- Michael Beasley
23. Boston- John Salmons
24. LA Lakers- Carlos Delfino

Week 7 Picks

Pittsburgh -3 @Miami

TJ: This line should be higher. While the Doc and I have been down with the ‘Phins since the preseason, they are still not in the same league with Pittsburgh, a top 3 team. Ben should have his rhythm back after a warmup against my hapless Brownies, and they’ve won on the road at TN and Tampa. Miami is 3-0 at home, but those wins were by 5, 4, and 3 points, so I’m not as impressed as I might be. Steelers by a TD, at least.
DP: I will stick my feeling that Miami can beat undisciplined teams, but does not have the talent to compete with the top teams. Pick: Pitt.

@Atlanta -3.5 Cincy
TJ: Another line that looks too low to me. I’ve said all year that I hate the damn Bengals, and after consecutive losses to Cleveland and Tampa, you can’t expect me to believe they’re going to go into Atlanta and keep it close. I expect a big game from Turner, whose carries have been limited (18/game), meaning he’s fresh and ready for a breakout game. 150 yards and 2 TDs seems about right. Pick: Atlanta.
DP: I think Atlanta will bounce back after last week’s fiasco in Philly. Cincy has a good D, but Atlanta is balanced and well coached so they should be able to move the ball at home. Pick: Atlanta

@KC -9 Jacksonville
TJ: I’ve said many times that I don’t like KC, but I don’t like Jacksonville either. KC is riding a two-game losing streak, and Jacksonville is wildly inconsistent. It’s like being given the choice between being beaten to death with a tire iron or being beaten to death with a tire iron dipped in dog shit. I don’t want to pick either one, but one choice stinks just a little more. In this case, it’s Jacksonville that’s dipped in shit, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover.
DP: This line was so stunning to me; I had to double-check it. Apparently, the 3rd string QB is starting for Jax. I’ve had Chief love all year, but even I am a little concerned about this one. The Jags will try to lean on the running game and use short passes to get long drives, eat up clock, and avoid turnovers. I think it will be close and low scoring. Pick: Jags.

@Tennessee -3 Philly
TJ: This is a tough pick. Vick is still out, but Kolb looked just fine last week. Tennessee is coming off a straight-up ass-stomping of the Jags on the road, and I love the way Chris Johnson played in the last two games. With the home team giving 3, Vegas is telling us these teams are equal, and I agree with that assessment. My gut says the NFC East is going to get even messier, so I say the Eagles lose this one. Titans to cover.
DP: The Titans have a tough D and will likely want to lay out the quick Philly receivers crossing the field (suspensions be damned). The question will be whether or not the Titans can generate enough offense to cover especially coming off a short week with Kerry Collins starting. My gut says no. Pick: Iggles.

@Chicago -3 Washington
TJ: This is the week where Chicago’s D steps up and Donovan falls apart. Don’t get me wrong, I like McNabb, but he’s due for a shitstorm, and this is the week. Chicago wins easily at home.
DP: No truth to the rumor that Mike Martz is being investigated for conspiracy to commit murder by allowing Jay Cutler to be sacked 2.5 times PER QUARTER. I think Chicago is a bit of a mess right now and I liked the way the Redskins played on Sunday night. Pick: Redskins.

@New Orleans -13 Cleveland
TJ: I think Cleveland plays better than anyone expects. Saints win by 27.
DP: This is a big overreaction to last weeks win. I still think New Orleans is not playing well and the Browns have been hanging close in most of their games. The Juice may not show the Browns any love, but I will. Pick: Browns.

@Baltimore -13 Buffalo
TJ: Fitzpatrick has played well as the Bills starter for three straight games. The streak ends here. The Ravens’ D is chomping at the bit to make up for last week’s loss to New England, and Flacco is ready to finally see a secondary he can read. Ravens cover.
DP: I have to agree with The Juice on this one. Not sure how the Bills score enough points against a tough Ravens D to keep this one close. Pick: Ravens.

San Fran -3 @Carolina
TJ: San Fran thinks they’re going to turn things around and make a run at the division. I doubt it, but I don’t think Carolina is the team to dash their hopes. I’d rather give Nate Newton a sponge bath than watch an entire Panthers game. 49ers cover and gives their fans another week of slim hopes.
DP: I love San Fran to go on a mini-run to get their fans hopes up before falling apart late in the year. Pick: San Fran.

@Tampa -3 St. Louis
TJ: I like the way this Rams team is coming together, but when you can go on the road and lose 44-6 to Detroit, I can’t back you in Tampa. Bucs cover, but not by much.
DP: Bucs got blew out at home last week while the Rams are celebrating a big win over San Diego. When in doubt always go the opposite of last week. Pick: Bucs.

@Seattle -6 Arizona
TJ: We knew that Seattle was tough at home, but after killing the Bears on the road, I’m beginning to wonder whether they might actually have something. Sorry Arizona, but Max Hall (QB rating 57.6) is not the answer to your QB problems. You’re done for the season, and next year doesn’t look a whole lot brighter. Seattle rolls at home.
DP: The Cards may have 3 wins, but 2 of them were pretty fluky. Meanwhile Seattle has actually played well, especially at home. Pick: Hawks.

@San Diego -3 New England
TJ: What happened to the Chargers? Vincent Jackson couldn’t possibly be that important, could he? Is Merriman a shell without the Winstrol? This is a team in disarray. How they can be favored, even at home, against a rejuvenated New England team, I have no idea. New England kills them outright, never mind the points.
DP: Vegas thinks these two teams are equal on a neutral field? Really? Usually when something looks this crazy, I have learned to go the opposite way. I mean someone who knows something has to be backing the Chargers right? The Chargers are coming home after a tough loss on the road. The Pats are flying across country after an emotional win over the Ravens. More worrisome, the Chargers have the top Offense going against a shaky Pats pass defense. I will go against every fiber of my body and Pick: Chargers.

@Denver -8.5 Oakland
TJ: Oakland has a bunch of really close losses. Their biggest weakness is run defense (30th), and Denver has the worst rushing attack in the league. I think this line is too high, and Oakland keeps it close. Hell, they might even pick up a win here! Raiders get my vote.
DP: This seems like a big line until you realize the Raiders will either be starting an injured Jason Campbell (eek) or a healthy Kyle Boller (double eek). Denver is feisty and can move the ball through the air. Kyle Orten may have problems scoring TDs, but that’s where Tim Tebow comes in. I like Denver to go on a bit of a run and get into the AFC West race. Pick: Broncos.

@Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota
TJ: This isn’t a must win for both teams, but it’s close. Minnesota is just hitting their stride, and the Pack is more roughed up than the Sham Wow guy after that hooker in Miami bit his tongue.I say the Vikes continue their little streak, at least until the shit hits the fan in the Farvecockgate scandal. Vikings cover.
DP: Minny has new life and take advantage by going into Green Bay and winning outright. Pick: Vikes.

@Dallas -3 Giants
TJ: The Giants have really turned their season around. Here’s where they give away a close game to an underrated Cowboys team that’s finally going to get tired of all the criticism. Dallas gets the win at home in a turnover-fest, covering the spread with a defensive TD.
DP: Just when you think they’re out of it, they drag you back in. Pick: ‘Boys.

5 Questions for Week 7:

TJ: Okay, Doc, I went a little random with the questions this week. As per your request, I’m laying off the “helmet hits legislation” controversy, but question 2 might touch on medical issues related to cranial injury, so try not to get your panties in a bunch. Let’s get going:

1. In college, the BCS system doesn’t take margin-of-victory into account in an effort to prevent teams from running up the score. This doesn’t apply to the NFL, obviously, so you rarely see teams passing the ball with a 30-point lead (2007 Patriots excluded), and scores don’t usually get out of hand, with good teams putting the breaks on late in the game. Does this mean that offensive output doesn’t tell us much about the quality of teams in the NFL? Example: Detroit is 1-5, but they’re second in the NFC in scoring at 146 total points, while Tampa is 3-2 having only scored 88. The same is true of total yards of offense, with 2-4 San Diego leading the league in this category, while Pittsburgh is 29th. Are wins and losses all you can use when determining how good a team is? This is a great question. I think you are right about the Offensive stats being mis-leading. Offense yards are largely a reflection of a lot of passing because it increases the number of possessions and gives you large chunks of yardage. The problem is that bad teams that fall behind early pass more frequently they get a lot of yards, but frequently lose games (like Detroit and San Diego). Certainly there are some very good teams that are built around a passing offense, namely Indy and New Orleans, but in general defense and balanced passing/running has been more successful this year. I have always hated the yardage stat for defense. The simple stat I like is points per game allowed. The top 10 in this category is Pitt, Balt, Chicago, Tenn, Atlanta/NY Jets, Minn, New Orleans, KC, Green Bay. The bottom 5 are Oakland, Arizona, Jax/Houston, Buff. That has the feel of good face validity. The only time this stat does not work is when there is a big imbalance between Offense on Defense on the same team. For instance, the Bears D is really good, but there Offense is shaky, so #3 overall seems a little high. The same for Houston, there D is terrible but as a team they are a little above average because their Offense can bail them out (like Washington and Kansas City).

2. Former stud linebacker and NFL poster-boy Junior Seau has been in the news recently. He allegedly assaulted his 25-year-old girlfriend, was arrested, and spent the night in the pokey. Things got a little crazier the next day, though, when Seau ran his SUV off a 100-foot cliff and was hospitalized for the injuries. Seau told the cops he fell asleep at the wheel (somewhat believable after a sleepless night in jail), and the cops say the lack of skid marks at the scene is consistent with that. Now, Doc, you’re used to dealing with the crazies: does this not sound more like a suicide attempt to you? And if so, doesn’t this fit with both the depression that often hits newly-retired athletes, and with the erratic behavior and depression that seem to come with repeated brain trauma in retired NFL players? First a few disclaimers. The Doc is something of a specialist in assessing suicide risk. I probably assess 4-6 people a week in the Emergency Room. Also I have not interviewed Seau and I have no medical information on the case. Finally, I am not technically allowed to speculate on Seau himself, but I can discuss my approach to a case like this. In general this would fall under the category of ‘impulsive attempt’ since there is no evidence of acts made in preparation of death (like writing a suicide note or leaving extra food for your pets, etc...). In cases of impulsive attempts, you would basically consider a few things. 1. Its not a suicide attempt. People sometimes accidently take too many pills trying to fall asleep or accidently cut themselves and its not a suicide attempt in any way. This could certainly be true in this case. He was up all night in jail and fell asleep on the way home. Entirely plausible. 2. Narcissistic injury. This will frequently happen in cases where important people (or people who think they are important) have their self-identity injured in some way. Unable to go on in a world where they are no longer recognized as being ‘great’ or ‘important’, the person impulsively attempts suicide to avoid the perceived slight. I saw a similar case where a vice-president of a company got fired by his boss and he went home and turned on the car in the garage and tried to kill himself with carbon monoxide. He later admitted that he wanted his boss to feel guilty for driving him to kill himself. 3. Hypofrontality. This is usually the case with children, the mentally retarded, and people with frontal brain injuries. The front of the brain is the sort of ‘brakes’ on stupid behavior. A lot of people will start off with a bad idea (like I want to kill myself or beat someone up), but come to come to their senses before they really do it. That’s your frontal lobe saying ‘things really aren’t that bad, you shouldn’t do this because you’ll be giving up on a lot of other really great stuff.’ For some reason people who either have not developed frontal activity (the young and the mentally retarded) or people with damage to their frontal lobe (demented elderly or Brain injury patients) have no ‘brakes’ and just go ahead and do stupid shit. This would be a tough case as all 3 are plausible, I am glad I am not the psychiatrist in this case.
3. The Jets have the best record in the league at 5-1. Last season, they were 9-7, just above mediocre. This year, in six games, they’ve forced 14 turnovers and given up only 4 (+10), while last year they forced 32 and gave up 30 (+2) in 16 games. My question: doesn’t this mean the Jets have just gotten lucky? Is turnover margin a reflection of improved tactics and talent, or will the Jets come back to earth as the turnover margin corrects itself? Turnover’s given up is a funny statistic. I think its been pretty clearly shown that fumble recoveries are mainly chance, but INTs are another matter. Certainly there is some luck involved with tipped passes or dropped INTs by the defenders, but I think it is mainly a reflection of QB play. Sanchez had 20 picks last year and 2 so far this year. That projects out to 5 this year. That is not luck by itself. I think it is a reflection of his improved play and probably the best argument that the Jets are for real.

4. Sam Bradford has gotten a lot of pub for his QB performance, but his rating is 69.3, 30th in the league, and he has more INTs (8) than TDs (7). Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s never mentioned, has a passer rating of 100 (ranked 4th) with 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Is this a statistical aberration? If Peyton lost his right arm in a bull-milking accident tomorrow, who would you rather have playing QB for your beloved Colts? I thought it was interesting that Fitzpatrick was the 4th ranked QB as well, but lets not get carried away. His team allowed 38, 38, and 36 in those 3 losses. QBs will always put up stats when they are trailing. I think we will see those numbers come down when Defensive coordinators have more tape to scheme him. I would definitely pick Bradford long term. I think the long term record is good for QBs who can ‘keep their head above water’ their first year and Bradford is OK. Expect to see a big jump next year like Sanchez did this year.


5. It’s often argued by NBA, MLB, and NHL fans and commentators that the there are too many teams, and that the talent pool has become too dilute, reducing overall quality of play. I rarely hear this argument for the NFL, but when so many teams are struggling to find a suitable QB, and running backs have a 3-year life expectancy, I’d argue that the NFL would benefit as much as any sport from a bit of contraction (OK, maybe not as much as hockey, which should contract to about 4 teams total, all in Montreal). So, if the NFL had to kill 8 franchises to move to a 24-team league, and you were in charge, who would you contract, and why?

So this is strictly hypothetical since the owners are making a ton of money and would never buy out 8 franchises and put out less product. But I do love it because its fun to rank the fan bases. The same logic would apply if you asked me to come up with a list of the top candidates to move to LA. My criteria are pretty simple: try to spread out the cuts evenly amongst divisions, keep fair geographical distribution, reward loyal fan bases, and try to keep ‘historic’ franchises. In reverse order these are my cuts.

8. San Diego/Oakland- I had a hard time deciding here. San Diego has little history and poor fan support. Oakland has a lot of history, but is poorly run and I don’t think the Bay Area gets two teams in a 24 team league. This would be my ultimatum. The first team that agrees to move to LA gets to stay in the league, the other team gets cut.

7. Carolina- I waffled between Atlanta and Carolina. Carolina has no history (except one Superbowl loss), but Atlanta does not have much history either and does not get great fan support. Ultimately, Atlanta is a more important economic region that Carolina.

6. Detroit- This was a tough cut because they were an original franchise and their fans are actually pretty loyal. But their history is pretty bad and you could put the Lions fans out of their misery. Plus the failing Michigan economy can’t support the team as well as it once could.

5. Buffalo- Another tough cut. Buffalo fans are loyal and the team means a lot to the region, but its just not economically feasible.

4. St. Louis- They have some history with The Greatest Show on Turf, but I always thought they didn’t fit into the NFL that well. The city sits between 3 more established franchises (Chicago, Tenn, and KC) so its not that important regionally.

3. Arizona- I am probably killing the old St. Louis Ram fans, but Arizona has no history, has been poorly run, and the fan base is composed mainly of older retirees who root for the other team.

2. Cincinnati- I am gutting the Midwest; which I think has too many teams. Cincy has a long track record of misery brought about by poor management. They are an embarrassment to the league and the city is within a few hours of both Indy and Cleveland.

1. Jax- The easiest cut of all. The Jags were a mistake from the beginning. Northern Florida is more of a college football area. The fans have not supported the team very well and they have no history. In fact, even without contraction, I would force Jax to move to LA, move them to the NFC West and put St. Louis in the AFC South along with Indy, Tenn, and Houston. Doesn’t that make a lot more sense?

Tailgate Recipe of the Week: Xnipec

From The Juice

Don’t know where I first learned this recipe for an awesomely hot smokey salsa, but I’ve modified it so much over the years, I don’t feel bad not giving a specific credit.  So here’s the deal: “Xnipec” is a Mayan word meaning “nose of the dog.”  This salsa earns the name by being so damn hot it will make your nose run.  So it’s wet.  You know, like a dog’s nose?  OK, forget the name, this shit tastes awesome on chips, and goes even better in ground meat tacos or chicken quesadillas.  Plus it’s green, which makes it look exotic to the yokels.  You can cut back on the number of habaneros if you want.  Then, after your nap, maybe you can have some warm milk and play dress up with the other girls.  Or, you can stop being a pussy, and put all the peppers in it.  Also, this makes a big-ass batch, because I like to keep some in the fridge and use it as a condiment for a week or so after I make it.  You can easily half or even quarter the recipe.

Ingredients:

4 pounds tomatillos, peeled and washed

10 large cloves garlic, peeled

1 large white onion, peeled and quartered (two if they’re small)

4 jalapeno peppers, washed, stems removed

4 habanero peppers, washed, stems removed

Two limes

Handful of fresh cilantro

Salt to taste

Preheat your oven to 400°F.  Line a large rimmed baking sheet with aluminum foil (makes it easier to clean afterward).  After everything is cleaned and peeled, add the tomatillos, garlic, onion,  and peppers to the sheet and bake, turning things frequently, until all sides are browned (you may have to remove the garlic if it browns too much before the tomatillos are done – don’t burn anything).  Let it all cool a bit, then put everything into a food processor along with the cilantro (or roughly chop and put it in a  blender if it’s all you have).  Pulse it until it’s all incorporated into a sauce, then keep adding salt and lime juice (no seeds, man, they’ll get all chipped up in the processor and you’ll never get all the bits out) and pulsing to mix until it tastes salty and acidic enough.  It should be pretty damn spicy, so you might want to taste it on a chip if you don’t have the balls to handle the heat.