This week, the questions come from the Doc, and the mad knowledge is dropped by the Juice:
Doctor Psych: The NFL has handed us an unusually juicy week 6 (no pun intended). Thanks to a few surprise teams we actually have several interesting match-ups headlined by Ravens-Patriots and Falcons-Eagles. For this week’s 5 Questions let’s play a little “Contender or Pretender”. Juice, I’ll give you 5 pretty even match-ups and you let us know the straight-up winner. Which teams use a win this week to vault themselves into contention and which losers are sliding out of the play-off picture?
1. Dolphins @ Packers. The resumes: The Fins started the year with wins @Buff and @Minn followed by home losses to NY Jets and the Pats. The Cheese Heads have lost @Bears and @Redskins and their only quality win was @Philly.
Man, Green Bay is such a mystery. They’re 6 points away from 5-0, and 9 points away from 1-4. Everybody loved them before the season, so it’s hard to judge them objectively, but it seems like 3-2 with tough games against Miami, Minny and the NY Jets means they’re in a bit of trouble. However, I’m going to say that injuries have hurt them early, as well as unreasonable expectations, and that they’re still going to contend for the division and be poised for a run in the playoffs. Doc, Miami was our favorite preseason sleeper. Unfortunately, of their next six games, five are against very good teams, and the sixth is against Cincy, a crappy team that capable of flashes of decent play. They could conceivably be 2-8 at the end of that stretch, and 4-6 seems very likely. Hard to see them making the playoffs with the Jets and NE to contend with in the division. Final verdict: GB: winner/contender; Miami: loser/pretender.
2. Saints @ Bucs. The resumes: The Saints struggled to beat Minn, San Fran and Carolina (teams with a combined record of 1- 13) while losing to Atlanta and Arizona. The Bucs are one of the early surprise teams with wins against the Browns, Panthers, and Bengals while only losing to Pitt.
I’ve hated the Bucs from day one, and thought their victories were against crap teams, and lucky to boot (aside from 20-7 over Carolina, who are so fucking bad, even the Bucs didn’t need luck to beat them). The sad part: their schedule doesn’t get any harder! They have 12 more games, and have to play New Orleans and Atlanta twice and Baltimore once, so let’s say 1-4 in those games. The rest is St Louis, Arizona, Carolina, San Fran, Washington, Detroit, and Seattle. Let’s be optimistic and say 5-2 in those games. That makes them 9-7, with no shot at the playoffs. In reality, I’m guessing 7-9. Now the Saints are another story. They also have an easy remaining schedule (TB twice, Cleveland, Carolina, St. Louis, Cincy, and Seattle are all coming up), and have the talent and experience to take advantage. The keys for them will be establishing a running game without Bush to take the pressure off Brees, and limiting their own turnovers while generating a few on the defensive end. I think they do it, win the division (or a Wild Card) at 11-5, but stall in the playoffs. My prediction: NO: winner/contender; TB: loser/pretender.
3. Chiefs @ Texans. The resumes: Chiefs have beat the Chargers, Browns, and 49ers (combined records 3-12) while losing @Indy. The Texans started well with wins against Indy and @Wash, but have struggled lately losing to the Cowboys and getting demolished by the Giants.
I’m not too geeked about either of these teams. The Chiefs (whom you hyped a bit in the preseason) have always seemed weak to me. I guess those coordinators are pretty good, but they looked lost at Indy, and I think we’ll see more of the same whenever they play good teams. Like the Bucs, though, that won’t be often. Chiefs schedule: Houston, Jax, Buffalo, Oakland twice, Denver twice, Arizona, Seattle, SD, St Louis, Tennessee. They could play badly and go 6-6, giving them 9 wins on the season, and maybe topping San Diego for the AFC West. If that happens, they’ll get murdered in the first round of the playoffs. The Texans have the tools to be a better team, but it seems like good teams can solve them. Maybe that indicates a coaching deficiency, or maybe they just need another year. Their remaining schedule is tough, and the Colts and Titans are both for real, so I’m saying they’re a better team than KC, but are less likely to make the playoffs. So, I have to render a mixed verdict: Houston wins, but they’re both pretenders!
4. Cowboys @ Vikings. No need to rehash these two public favorites. One team gets to 2-3 and one team goes to 1-4.
If I didn’t think he was a first-class douchebag, I’d have felt really bad for Farve last night. I don’t think there was a soul on earth who didn’t know he was going to throw that last pick in the final Vikings drive. He can’t help it. He’s just not smart or self-aware enough to make good decisions under those circumstances, and his bad decisions have worked out well enough in the past that he keeps getting opportunities to make more of them. The Vikes are 1-3, which means they need to go 10-2 for the rest of the season. Saying they win all their easy ones (unlikely), they still have to go 6-2 against Chicago (x2), Green Bay (x2), Dallas, New England, The Giants, and Philly. That’s a Herculean task, but not impossible given their talent. It all comes down to Farve getting past the off-the-field stuff (also unlikely – did you hear the voicemails? If it’s not him, the impersonator is phenomenal) and playing mistake-free football for 12 weeks. I give them a 10% chance.
The Cowboys situation is dismal. It’s not their schedule (hard, but not ridiculous), it’s their coaching and talent. I believe you called it earlier in the year, Doc: this team was set up for an epic collapse. Ultra-high expectations, talent in the skill positions paired with poor and old linemen, and a coaching staff more suited for a shuffleboard tournament than an NFL season. They’re in a similar position to the Vikes, in that they need to go 10-2 in their remaining games to earn a playoff spot. I think their chances are even lower than 10%. Final verdict: Vikings: winner/(barely)contender; Dallas: loser/pretender.
5. Titans @ Jags. The resumes: The Titans have wins against Oakland, @Giants and @Cowboys, but lost two tough home game to Pitt and Denver. The equally baffling Jags beat Denver, Indy and Buff, but were blown out @San Diego and at home to the Eagles.
I can’t figure out the Jags. I hate everything about this team, but somehow, they’re 3-2. They have a tough remaining schedule, and even if Garrard keeps playing well, I don’t have faith in their defense or run game. I think the chances of them making the playoffs in a division with Indy, Houston and Tennessee are about nil. Tennessee has some problems: they’re not as strong as they used to be on the defensive front, they ask too much of Chris Johnson, and they have no receivers to help Vince Young keep his confidence. However, they’re a tough, well-coached team, with enough talent and more than enough discipline to win all the easy games (five by my count) and half the tough games (3-3) left on their schedule, leaving them 11-5 and in the playoffs with a Wild Card. Final verdict: Titans: winner/contender; Jags: loser/pretender.
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