Week 5 Picks

The Good Doc is pretty busy with his kid’s birthday party this weekend, so the commentary will be sparse. Hopefully this will make sound less dumb.

@Baltimore -7 Denver
TJ: I'd like Denver if they were at home, but I can't see them winning in Baltimore.  Flacco may finally get it together this week.  Baltimore is the pick.
DP: Denver is already pretty one-dimensional and Moreno is still hurt making things even worse. Balt has the top pass defense in the league and Denver can move the ball but has trouble scoring TDs. Pick: Ravens.

Jacksonville -1  @Buffalo
TJ: Jacksonville looked for real at home against Indy, but I don’t like them on the road at all. Buffalo isn’t good, but they have to win one eventually, right? I’ll take them, though I wish I were getting more than one point.
DP: This line has moved to Jax +2 which is probably a closer to reality. Pick: Jax.

@Indy -7 KC
TJ: No way Indy gives a game at home to KC after that embarrassing Jacksonville loss. I don’t care how long Weiss and Crennel had to scheme, they can’t stop Manning, and Cassel will choke. Indy covers.
DP: This game feels like 31-24 to me. I think KC moves the ball with their ground game very well then hits deep play action passes against a banged up Colts secondary. Meanwhile Manning should put up quick scores by pressuring the KC secondary. I suspect the time of possession will be heavily in favor of KC. The line has moved to 8, which I like better than 7. Pick: KC.

@Detroit -3 St. Louis
TJ: Everyone is jumping on the Rams bandwagon. Seems like the perfect time to sell. I think the Lions get healthy here and cover the spread.
DP: The records are deceiving. The Lions have played 4 good teams tight (losing 3 on the road) while St. Louis has 2 nice home wins, but also lost two close games to terrible teams. I think this will be close and I don’t think Detroit pulls away to cover. Pick: Rams.

Atlanta -3 @Cleveland
TJ: Atlanta knows they can’t give away any games with the Saints in the division. As much as I want my Brownies to go on a streak after last week’s win, I don’t think they can do it against the Birds. Atlanta wins a close game.
DP: Atlanta.

@Cincy -6.5 Tampa
TJ: Cincy is so fucking overrated. I hate Tampa, but I have to take them with the points.
DP: Bucs.

@Carolina -1.5 Chicago
TJ: Carolina stinks, and I have to think the Bears will get after their fresh meat QB early and often. If Cutler can be convinced to throw the ball away if no one is open within 3 seconds, the offense might be OK as well. Don’t like to pick the road team here, but I’m going with the Bears, and laying the point and a half.
DP: Collins is taking over for Cutler so the Bears will rely on a short passing game and running to cover for a shaky O-line. Meanwhile the Bears Defense is pretty active. Pick: Bears.

Green Bay -2.5 @Washington
TJ: Washington is so inconsistent, I don’t know what to make of these guys. The Packer’s secondary is hurt, but do the Redskins have a single receiver who can take advantage? I’m hoping for a big game from Chris Cooley, and taking the home dog. ‘Skins get my vote.
DP: Let down game for the Redskins. Their pass defense is 31st in the league, the Aaron Rodgers for MVP campaign starts here with a big blow-out win. Lock of the Week. Pick: Pack

@Houston -3 NY Giants
TJ: The Texans are feeling a little rough after Dallas handed them their collective asses last week. I think they get the running game going and wear the Giants out. Houston to cover.
DP: I would stay away from this game if I was putting up real money. @ -3 Vegas is basically saying these teams are equal on a neutral field; which does not sound right to me. Pick: Texans.

New Orleans -6.5 @Arizona
TJ: Max Hall? Really? New Orleans better kill these guys, or they’re pretenders. I’ll take the Saints.
DP: Hard to believe this is a re-match of last year’s play-offs. Pick: New Orleans.

San Diego -6 @Oakland
TJ: Oooh, I can’t back Oakland hard enough in this one. Getting six points at home, and SD is wildly inconsistent. I’m thinking this is one of the Chargers’ bad games. Raiders, Raiders, Raiders.
DP: Another stay away for me. Pick: Raiders.

@Dallas -7 Tennessee
TJ: This seems like too many points to me, and I don’t think Dallas has righted the ship. Chris Johns finally gets going, and Tennessee romps, pretty much crushing Dallas’s season.
DP: This game brings back fond memories for the Doc. Last NFL game I saw live was Titans at Cowboys in the now demolished Texas Stadium. Hard to believe that was 8 years ago. Seems like I should go to at least one game a year. Oh well. Dallas is built a lot like Indy and Tenn is built to stay with Indy. The Dallas O can get rattled by physical defenses and Tenn is pretty nasty. Pick: Titans.

@San Fran -3 Philly
TJ: Vick is out, it’s a long road trip, and San Fran has to win for this season to become anything but a spectacular disaster. I’ll take the 49er’s and lay the field goal.
DP: Philly.

@NY Jets -4 Minnesota
TJ: I want to take the home dog, but this is it for Minnesota. They have a brutal stretch of games, and need to win this one to get moving. I say Moss hands it to Derell Revis for the second time this season, but this time wearing purple. Vikings are my pick.
DP: The Brett Farve/Randy Moss revenge tour starts this week (@Jets, @Green Bay in 2 weeks, @New England in 3 weeks). I think this will be close and possibly low scoring. I’ll take the points. Pick: Vikings.