DP: This was an epic weekend in gambling with scores from 7 of the 14 games being within 2 points of the spread. This is clearly one reason the NFL is so popular, just about anyone betting on the games could justify in their minds that they were only a couple of plays away from making a killing. This kind of false hope is what leads to degenerates like me trying pick the games every week (and ending up 6-7-1). On to the games!
The Juice and I called this Contender or Pretender Week in the NFL because there were a lot of close match-ups. I think we learned a lot about who is for real and who is a fraud.
@Chicago (-6.5) 20-23 Seattle
DP: On Friday I wrote that the Seahawks did not have the pass rush to exploit the porous Bear’s pass protection. Apparently I was wrong. The Hawks pick up a crucial road win and now must be considered a legitimate threat to win the NFC West. Meanwhile the Bears final 7 games of the season are Minn, @Miami, Philly, @Detroit, New England, @Minny, Jets, @Green Bay. I see a late fade coming on.
TJ: The most revealing game of the week. I thought the Seahawks were garbage on the road, but I’m proven wrong yet again. Barring a serious run by the Cardinals or Rams (both unlikely to me), the Seahawks will be hosting a playoff game, and they have an awesome home field. Could we actually see them in the second round? I don’t think so, but it’s no longer impossible. With the Vikings’ huge win, and the possibility of Green Bay eventually getting semi-healthy, the Bears just watched their playoff hopes shrink smaller than Farve’s alleged penis.
@Green Bay (-3.5) 20-23 Miami
DP: The Dolphins are pretty much the complete opposite of the Dallas Cowboys. Very few big name star players, balanced offense, well coached, disciplined (only 4 penalties for 30 yards). They are basically good enough to beat teams that make mistakes, but not good enough to win against teams that don’t beat themselves. The Packers have just been crushed by injuries. They still have Minny, @Jets, and Cowboys before they get to their Bye week. We’ll see if they can get keep it together long enough to get healthy.
TJ: Man, the Pack looked so good going into the season, but it turns out a running back and defense really are important in this league, and injuries have destroyed Green Bay in those respects. They can still compete if they can improve even marginally in the injury department, but I like the Vikings to win the division now. As the good doctor said, Miami is a very good team, but I can’t see them making any real noise this year. A picking up a little more talent in trades and the draft could make them a contender in the next couple years, though.
San Diego (-8) 17-20 @ St. Louis
DP: I predicted the Chargers would struggle this year, but I never expected losses to the Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Raiders (teams that picked #1, 5, 6 and 8 in last years draft). We’ll see if Norv Turner can turn things around again this year, but the easier part of their schedule is over. They still have New England, Tenn, @Houston, and @Indy plus KC, Denver (2X) and Cincy. That looks like 8-8 or 9-7. The Rams are playing well but started with 4 out of their first 6 at home. After their bye week they have 4 out 5 on the road. If they are still in contention after this stretch, they will end the season @Seattle: a game that could decide the NFC West, believe it or not.
TJ: I like the Rams’ style, I like their coaching, and I like their easy division. I just don’t think they have nearly enough talent to make postseason noise this year. Actually, I think they’re at least two years away from competing in the playoffs, even if they do everything perfectly. The Chargers are finally done with their run of decent seasons, and can fade back into NFL obscurity for another decade. Bye, Norv!
@New England (-2.5) 23-20 Baltimore
DP: This was a great game that actually lived up to the hype. I was critical of the Branch signing (essentially the Pats traded up from a 4th to a 3rd round pick in exchange for going from Moss to Branch), but the trade paid off yesterday. The Pats, Jets, and Steelers all lead the AFC with only 1 loss. Throw in quality two-loss teams like the Ravens, Colts, Titans, Texans, and Dolphins and you have to consider the AFC to have now clearly separated from the NFC. This was a tough loss for the Ravens after leading by 10 in the 4th quarter, but don’t forget they started the season with 4 out of 6 on the road (including @Jets, @Cincy, @Steelers, and @Pats). They made it through that stretch 4-2 and now look forward to Buff, BYE, Miami, @Atlanta, @Carolina, and Tampa.
TJ: Two good teams playing a tough game. In the end, the Ravens squandered too many opportunities, as they did against the much shittier Bengals earlier in the season. I think they have all the tools to be a Superbowl team, and Flacco played a great game (119 QB rating, compared to Brady’s 69.5). They just needed to convert in the redzone, and they needed some kind of go-to play to get them into field goal range in OT. I think they pull it together and compete with the Steelers for the division. The Pats are doing what they always do: win tough games and make few mistakes. I don’t think they have the defense to win the Superbowl, but there’s no doubt they’re in the conversation.
@NY Giants (-10) 28-20 Detroit
DP: The most common word used to describe the Lions has been ‘scrappy’. This is clearly an improvement from the past when they were merely ‘crappy’, but they are still headed to another high draft pick. The Giants get the Cowboys in 2 out their next 3 games. The ‘Boys will need to sweep those two games to have any hope of climbing back into the play-off picture.
TJ: Can the Giants actually be good? Detroit at home is no true test, but if they can win their next two in Dallas and in Seattle, I’ll buy in. I’m not holding my breath. Detroit is Detroit. Maybe with Millen out of the front office, they have some hope for the long-term, but they’re not going to contend this year or next.
@Philly (-2.5) 31-17 Atlanta
DP: Like the Ravens, the Falcons just seemed to run out of gas after opening the season with 4 out 6 road games. The Falcons schedule gets significantly easier now (Cincy, BYE, Tampa) and end the season with 2 out their last 4 against Carolina. The Eagles keep pace with the Giants in the NFC East and now have @Tenn, BYE, Indy. It will be interesting to see which QB plays for them after the bye week.
TJ: This just in: Philly’s pretty good. I actually like them better than the Giants, and I think their best bet is to work both their QBs in whenever possible. Hell, they’re both more fragile than T.O.’s ego, so they can just take turns getting hurt. Atlanta’s not dead by any stretch, but they need to play up to their potential if they’re going to keep up with the Saints.
@Pittsburgh (-13.5) 28-10 Cleveland
DP: Not much to say here about this game. At least the Browns can claim they are developing a QB for the future unlike other bad teams like Buff, Oakland, and San Fran. The Steelers now start a tough stretch (@Miami, @New Orleans, @Cincy, New England), but also still have Buff, Oakland, Carolina and Cleveland left. It’s hard to see the Steelers going worse than 12-4.
TJ: My Brownies just don’t have the talent or the luck this year. They were badly outclassed, but I liked the way McCoy played. I’ll be shocked if he can stay healthy, but if he can, maybe this season will be “constructive” for him. I still say “destructive” is more likely. Pittsburgh is excellent, they have no real weaknesses, and they will fight the Ravens for a first-round bye. Fuckers.
New Orleans (-4) 31-6 @Tampa
DP: I knew the Saints would cover a spread as soon as I went against them. The Saints may or may not be back and the Bucs are probably frauds. This is the kind of high-powered insight you get from a free blog.
TJ: The Bucs have been huge pretenders from minute one, and I’ll be shocked if the finish 8-8. This was the week for New Orleans to get healthy, and they got the job done. Now, who the hell is Chris Ivory, and is he injured? Because if not, he may be the guy to put the New Orleans running game back on track.
@Houston (-4.5) 35-31 Kansas City
DP: I am still sticking with my Chiefs love. They played Indy tight and outplayed the Texans until late in the 4th quarter, this kind of thing happens to young teams developing an identity. You have to knock on the door a few times before you break through. The Chiefs still have a favorable schedule, six more home games and only 3 games against teams currently with winning records. The Texans pass defense is too poor for them to be considered a serious Superbowl contender. They started the season with 4 of 6 home games and after next week’s BYE, they have @Indy, San Diego, @Jax, @Jets, Tenn, @Philly, Ravens, @Tenn.
TJ: I still don’t see it with the Chiefs, but with San Diego on life support, I guess it’s between them and Denver to win that division. I still say the Chiefs stink, though, and I’ll kiss the Doc’s pasty Midwestern ass if they win a playoff game. Houston’s division is too tough to give them more than a puncher’s chance at the playoffs, now. Of the eight games the Doc listed, I’m guessing they win three, tops.
NY Jets -3 @Denver
DP: I was one pass interference on a Hail Mary away from nailing this one and going 7-6-1 for the week and being in the money. This kind of thinking is what gets me in trouble. The Jets pulled out a tough road win after a Monday night game, that’s the sign of a good team. The Broncos are hard to figure out. They do only have three winning teams left on their schedule (KC, St Louis, and Houston) so they could be interesting to follow late in the year, especially if they hand the team over to Tim Tebow. Kyle Orten is currently 155 of 247 for 1942 years and 9 TDs to 3 INT. His Passer Rating is 9th in the league at 94.2 That puts him just ahead of Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, and Aaron Rodgers and WAY ahead of Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, and Brett Favre. I said it here first, Kyle Orten is the best mediocre QB in the league. Think what he could do on San Fran or Arizona?
TJ: The Jets are officially good. I worry that they might be peaking a little early, though. I could see them fading a bit just as teams like the Pats and Ravens start really getting into playoff shape. Denver can’t be very good, but as I said above, I don’t believe in the Chiefs at all yet. With their easy-ass schedule, they could sneak into the AFC West lead late in the season. Orten sports a pretty manly beard on occasion, and Cassel just seems like a douche to me, so I’m gonna root for the Broncos.
@San Fran (-6.5) 17-9 Oakland
DP: The weirdest line of the week (49ers by 6.5) gets the weirdest cover of the week: Alex Smith throws two second half TDs while Jason Campbell puts up a QB rating of 10.7. Both of these teams are going absolutely nowhere, so let’s move on.
TJ: The Raiders still have five division games left, so they’re still alive, right? Wrong, they still have @Pitt, Indy, Miami, and Seattle on the schedule, as well. At 2-4, they’re destined for 5-11 at best. San Fran has an incredibly easy remaining schedule, but I just don’t think they have the horses to finish strong. They may finish a game behind Seattle, and really lament those close losses early on (3, 2, and 3 points to NO, ATL, and PHI, respectively).
@Minnesota (-1.5) 24-21 Dallas
DP: Everything I worried about in the Cowboy’s pre-season has come true: poor coaching, sloppy play, O-line injuries, and absolutely ZERO accountability. I guess Keith Brooking is the leader of the Defense, but no one is reigning in the Offense. Tony Romo looks like an idiot at the post-game press conferences in his dumb little hat making up excuses. Could you imagine the Colts or Pats getting called for excessive celebration penalties TWICE? It would never happen.
So let’s get serious. What do the Cowboys do now? First, I would trade one of their 3 RBs. No need to keep three RBs if they aren’t going to run the ball. Maybe New England or Green Bay would cough up a middle round pick for Barber or Choice. As for Grandpa Wade, my guess is the Cowboys need to go 9-2 the rest of the way to get into the playoffs at 10-6. They still have 5 games in the division, so they would have to sweep Philly and the NY Giants, to have a realistic chance of catching them. The Cowboys have two games with Giants coming up plus the Jags, @Packers, Lions and Saints on Thanksgiving. Unless they go 5-1, I think Jerry fires Wade right after Thanksgiving, so that he has first shot at talking to Gruden and Cower.
As for the Vikings, they wake up tied with the Packers in the loss column and one game behind the Bears. They still have all 4 games left with the Packers and Bears plus Arizona and Buff in addition to tougher games against Philly, Wash and NY Giants. They have to feel pretty good as long as Favre is not suspended. 10-6 and a division win is not unrealistic.
TJ: The Vikings just put their playoff hopes in their own hands. They still have @NE, Giants at home, and @Philly, but the rest of their games are eminently winnable. With the Pack banged up and Chicago going off the deep end, I see the Vikes finishing 9-7 at worst, but 10-6 and a Wild Card (or even the division win) seems very doable now. The Cowboys are bigger choke artists than Jenna Jamison and Brianna Banks combined. They’re toast.
Indy (-3) 27-24 @Washington
DP: It wasn’t pretty but the Colts escape with a needed road win. They started the season with 4 out of 6 on the road and now go into the BYE with 6 home games left including all 3 division rivals (Jax, Tenn, Houston) plus Cincy, San Diego and Dallas. Road games are Philly, New England, Tenn, and Oakland. Another year of 12 wins is unlikely but 10-6 and the playoffs is within reach.
The Redskins have felt like an 8-8 team all year and nothing convinces me otherwise. They are 3-3, they still have 6 games on the road and are too inconsistent to make a serious run at the division.
TJ: The Colts are in the driver’s seat, as usual. They’re in a tough division, but I see Houston fading, and Tennessee isn’t good enough to keep up with Peyton’s boys. They need a stronger running game to help control the clock when they have a lead, and I don’t think they have the run defense to get past the Ravens/Steelers/Pats/Jets and make the Superbowl, but stranger things have happened. The Redskins needed this game. Their remaining schedule is too tough (and the Eagles and Giants look too good) for the ‘Skins to go 7-3 over their final 10 games for a shot at the postseason.
Tennessee (-3) 30-3 @ Jacksonville
DP: The Titans are another team that isn’t flashy, but is well coached, has a tough defense, good back-up QB, and solid to spectacular running game. They have clearly emerged as the dark horse in the AFC and the one team that could break up the Patiots/NY Jets/Ravens/Steelers/Colts play-off field. Jax has probably been exposed as a fraud. They still have six road games (KC, Dallas, Giants, Titans, Colts, Texans). Hard to see them getting to 8-8.
TJ: I’ve hated on Jacksonville from day one, and I’m still hating. Their wins have been close and their losses have been blowouts. A poor defense and no quarterback means another year sitting at home in January for the Jags. Tennessee looked impressive, and I’d like to say they have a shot at the playoffs, especially since Houston seems ready to roll over. It’s going to come down to the last six weeks of the season: Houston x2, Indy x2, @KC, and Jags at home. If they can go 3-3 or 4-2 over that stretch, they should be sitting on 10 or 11 wins and a Wild Card spot.
DP: So what have we learned from Contender vs. Pretender Week? In AFC, New England and NY Jets have emerged as the front-runners in the East. The Steelers and Ravens have favorable schedules and will likely pull away in the North. Miami is good, but already lost to the Jets and Pats at home. I doubt they can put together enough wins to pass the Jets, Pats, Ravens and Steelers. Indy is set up to do well in the South and Tenn may be able to hang around, but Houston is likely to fade down the stretch. I still like KC to win the West.
The NFC is wide open. Philly and the Giants will battle for the NFC East unless Washington or Dallas dramatically improves. Philly has a slightly easier schedule. Atlanta and New Orleans have favorable schedules and will pull away to win the South and claim one wild card. Minny has a chance to catch the Bears and Packers who are now struggling. The second wild-card will probably go to either the Eagles, Giants, Vikes, Packers, or Bears. The Rams and Seahawks will battle in Week 17 for the NFC West.
Updated Predictions:
Doctor Psych | The Juice | |
AFC North | Steelers 13-3 | Ravens 12-4 |
AFC South | Colts 10-6 | Colts 11-5 |
AFC East | Jets 12-4 | Jets 11-5 |
AFC West | KC 9-7 | Broncos 9-7 |
AFC WC #1 | Pats 11-5 | Steelers 12-4 |
AFC WC #2 | Ravens 11-5 | Pats 11-5 |
Doctor Psych | The Juice | |
NFC North | Vikings/Bears/Packers 10-6 or 9-7 | Vikings 10-6 |
NFC South | Atlanta/New Orleans 11-5 | New Orleans 11-5 |
NFC East | Eagles 10-6 | Giants 11-5 |
NFC West | Seahawks (maybe Cards or Rams) 8-8 | Seahawks 9-7 |
NFC WC #1 | Atlanta/New Orleans 10-6 | Atlanta 10-6 |
NFC WC #2 | Giants/Vikings/Bears/Packers 10-6 or 9-7 | Packers 9-7 |
TJ: Pick a team, Doc, you indecisive prick!
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