Week 7 Picks

Pittsburgh -3 @Miami

TJ: This line should be higher. While the Doc and I have been down with the ‘Phins since the preseason, they are still not in the same league with Pittsburgh, a top 3 team. Ben should have his rhythm back after a warmup against my hapless Brownies, and they’ve won on the road at TN and Tampa. Miami is 3-0 at home, but those wins were by 5, 4, and 3 points, so I’m not as impressed as I might be. Steelers by a TD, at least.
DP: I will stick my feeling that Miami can beat undisciplined teams, but does not have the talent to compete with the top teams. Pick: Pitt.

@Atlanta -3.5 Cincy
TJ: Another line that looks too low to me. I’ve said all year that I hate the damn Bengals, and after consecutive losses to Cleveland and Tampa, you can’t expect me to believe they’re going to go into Atlanta and keep it close. I expect a big game from Turner, whose carries have been limited (18/game), meaning he’s fresh and ready for a breakout game. 150 yards and 2 TDs seems about right. Pick: Atlanta.
DP: I think Atlanta will bounce back after last week’s fiasco in Philly. Cincy has a good D, but Atlanta is balanced and well coached so they should be able to move the ball at home. Pick: Atlanta

@KC -9 Jacksonville
TJ: I’ve said many times that I don’t like KC, but I don’t like Jacksonville either. KC is riding a two-game losing streak, and Jacksonville is wildly inconsistent. It’s like being given the choice between being beaten to death with a tire iron or being beaten to death with a tire iron dipped in dog shit. I don’t want to pick either one, but one choice stinks just a little more. In this case, it’s Jacksonville that’s dipped in shit, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover.
DP: This line was so stunning to me; I had to double-check it. Apparently, the 3rd string QB is starting for Jax. I’ve had Chief love all year, but even I am a little concerned about this one. The Jags will try to lean on the running game and use short passes to get long drives, eat up clock, and avoid turnovers. I think it will be close and low scoring. Pick: Jags.

@Tennessee -3 Philly
TJ: This is a tough pick. Vick is still out, but Kolb looked just fine last week. Tennessee is coming off a straight-up ass-stomping of the Jags on the road, and I love the way Chris Johnson played in the last two games. With the home team giving 3, Vegas is telling us these teams are equal, and I agree with that assessment. My gut says the NFC East is going to get even messier, so I say the Eagles lose this one. Titans to cover.
DP: The Titans have a tough D and will likely want to lay out the quick Philly receivers crossing the field (suspensions be damned). The question will be whether or not the Titans can generate enough offense to cover especially coming off a short week with Kerry Collins starting. My gut says no. Pick: Iggles.

@Chicago -3 Washington
TJ: This is the week where Chicago’s D steps up and Donovan falls apart. Don’t get me wrong, I like McNabb, but he’s due for a shitstorm, and this is the week. Chicago wins easily at home.
DP: No truth to the rumor that Mike Martz is being investigated for conspiracy to commit murder by allowing Jay Cutler to be sacked 2.5 times PER QUARTER. I think Chicago is a bit of a mess right now and I liked the way the Redskins played on Sunday night. Pick: Redskins.

@New Orleans -13 Cleveland
TJ: I think Cleveland plays better than anyone expects. Saints win by 27.
DP: This is a big overreaction to last weeks win. I still think New Orleans is not playing well and the Browns have been hanging close in most of their games. The Juice may not show the Browns any love, but I will. Pick: Browns.

@Baltimore -13 Buffalo
TJ: Fitzpatrick has played well as the Bills starter for three straight games. The streak ends here. The Ravens’ D is chomping at the bit to make up for last week’s loss to New England, and Flacco is ready to finally see a secondary he can read. Ravens cover.
DP: I have to agree with The Juice on this one. Not sure how the Bills score enough points against a tough Ravens D to keep this one close. Pick: Ravens.

San Fran -3 @Carolina
TJ: San Fran thinks they’re going to turn things around and make a run at the division. I doubt it, but I don’t think Carolina is the team to dash their hopes. I’d rather give Nate Newton a sponge bath than watch an entire Panthers game. 49ers cover and gives their fans another week of slim hopes.
DP: I love San Fran to go on a mini-run to get their fans hopes up before falling apart late in the year. Pick: San Fran.

@Tampa -3 St. Louis
TJ: I like the way this Rams team is coming together, but when you can go on the road and lose 44-6 to Detroit, I can’t back you in Tampa. Bucs cover, but not by much.
DP: Bucs got blew out at home last week while the Rams are celebrating a big win over San Diego. When in doubt always go the opposite of last week. Pick: Bucs.

@Seattle -6 Arizona
TJ: We knew that Seattle was tough at home, but after killing the Bears on the road, I’m beginning to wonder whether they might actually have something. Sorry Arizona, but Max Hall (QB rating 57.6) is not the answer to your QB problems. You’re done for the season, and next year doesn’t look a whole lot brighter. Seattle rolls at home.
DP: The Cards may have 3 wins, but 2 of them were pretty fluky. Meanwhile Seattle has actually played well, especially at home. Pick: Hawks.

@San Diego -3 New England
TJ: What happened to the Chargers? Vincent Jackson couldn’t possibly be that important, could he? Is Merriman a shell without the Winstrol? This is a team in disarray. How they can be favored, even at home, against a rejuvenated New England team, I have no idea. New England kills them outright, never mind the points.
DP: Vegas thinks these two teams are equal on a neutral field? Really? Usually when something looks this crazy, I have learned to go the opposite way. I mean someone who knows something has to be backing the Chargers right? The Chargers are coming home after a tough loss on the road. The Pats are flying across country after an emotional win over the Ravens. More worrisome, the Chargers have the top Offense going against a shaky Pats pass defense. I will go against every fiber of my body and Pick: Chargers.

@Denver -8.5 Oakland
TJ: Oakland has a bunch of really close losses. Their biggest weakness is run defense (30th), and Denver has the worst rushing attack in the league. I think this line is too high, and Oakland keeps it close. Hell, they might even pick up a win here! Raiders get my vote.
DP: This seems like a big line until you realize the Raiders will either be starting an injured Jason Campbell (eek) or a healthy Kyle Boller (double eek). Denver is feisty and can move the ball through the air. Kyle Orten may have problems scoring TDs, but that’s where Tim Tebow comes in. I like Denver to go on a bit of a run and get into the AFC West race. Pick: Broncos.

@Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota
TJ: This isn’t a must win for both teams, but it’s close. Minnesota is just hitting their stride, and the Pack is more roughed up than the Sham Wow guy after that hooker in Miami bit his tongue.I say the Vikes continue their little streak, at least until the shit hits the fan in the Farvecockgate scandal. Vikings cover.
DP: Minny has new life and take advantage by going into Green Bay and winning outright. Pick: Vikes.

@Dallas -3 Giants
TJ: The Giants have really turned their season around. Here’s where they give away a close game to an underrated Cowboys team that’s finally going to get tired of all the criticism. Dallas gets the win at home in a turnover-fest, covering the spread with a defensive TD.
DP: Just when you think they’re out of it, they drag you back in. Pick: ‘Boys.