5 questions for Week 5

TJ: A quarter of the way through the season, and we spent a lot of time taking stock of each team’s situation. Now that we’ve analyzed the status of the individual teams, let’s talk a bit about what this means for the big picture. Here are five questions for you, Doc, so man up and tell us what’s going on!

1. Currently, there are four teams without a win (Detroit, Carolina, San Fran, and Buffalo) and one undefeated team (the 3-0 Chiefs). After four weeks last season, there were five undefeated teams (Denver, Minnesota, Indy, New Orleans, and NY Giants), and six without a victory (Tenn, Cleveland, Tampa, Carolina, KC, and St Louis). Is this difference significant, or just chance? If it’s real, what does it mean? More parity? Lower quality of play?

Well I could go on and on about how the structure of the NFL discourages prolonged excellence and encourages parity (or mediocrity as the case may be), but really I think its just a statistical fluke. I think history shows that there will always be about 4 great teams and about 4 terrible teams and the rest of the league will fall in between. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, NY Jets, and Atlanta each could have been 4-0 with a few breaks.

2. The NFC East is basically all tied up (Washington, NYG, and Philly are 2-2, Dallas is 1-2), but I don’t like the way these teams have played. Is anybody in this division good? Conversely, the AFC South is also pretty much all square (Houston 3-1, Jax, Indy, and Tennessee 2-2), but everyone has looked really good at one point or another. Is anybody in this division bad?

The NFC East has always been the most interesting division to me because it is such a contrast in styles. The Giants and Eagles prize long term stability in coaching and building a team through good drafting. The Redskins and Cowboys frequently change coaches (and systems) requiring re-tooling through free agency. I don’t think it’s an accident that Eagles and Giants have had more play-off success in the last decade. Both of these are strong finishers (as opposed to the Cowboys and Redskins who usually fade). I think both could come on strong at the end and be solid in the play-offs.

The AFC South is another interesting division. So much of what Jax, Tenn, and Houston do is to counter Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Colts like to build a lead early then unleash their fast pass rush when teams are forced to throw. Jax, Tenn, and to a lesser extent Houston have mobile QBs, good RBs, and a short passing game specifically designed to counter the Colts by avoiding the pass rush and engineering long drives. As such, they tend to match up well with certain teams but not others. I think the AFC South will be very un-even this year with most teams between 7-9 and 10-6.

3. As of week four, AFC teams are 10-7 vs NFC teams. Is the AFC the better conference? In stacking up the divisions, obviously the NFC West is the worst, but which is strongest? I can think of compelling arguments for the AFC South, East, and North, but only the NFC North seems to stack up well to me. Am I biased?

I think the two leagues are pretty evenly matched for the first time in recent years. Again kind of a cop out answer, but I count 3 really good teams in the NFC (New Orleans, Atlanta, Green Bay) and three in the AFC (Pitt, Balt, NY Jets). Both conferences have some expected powers with question marks (Indy, New England, Minn, Dallas). Both conferences have some frisky teams who could win or loss to anyone (Miami, Cincy, Houston, Tenn, San Diego, Philly, Giants, Redskins, Bears). Right now, I would say the two best teams are Balt and Pitt (with Ben R. back). If you say that Cincy and Cleveland are at least playing hard right now, then its hard not say the AFC North is the toughest division.

4. There are some big player-personnel changes coming in Weeks 5/6/7, some good: Big Ben returns to Pittsburgh, Moss in Minnesota, Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, and Vincent Jackson’s reinstatement in SD; some bad: Portis out for 4-6 weeks in DC, Kolb in for the injured Vick in Philly, and undrafted rookie Matt Hall starting in Arizona. In the short term, which team will benefit the most (win the most games in Weeks 5-8), and which will be hurt the worst (lose the most games in Weeks 5-8)?

Well first the easy ones. Vincent Jackson and Portis make no difference. I think Ben R.’s return has little effect in weeks 5-7, but eventually Pitt turns into a Superbowl contender in Dec/January. The Vick injury could be surprisingly important. If Kolb can relax and not look over his shoulder, he may actually do OK. Arizona’s season is over. If I was Larry Fitzgerald, I would demand a trade. They need to start over. I don’t think Marshawn Lynch makes that big of a difference in the long run. Maybe 1 or 2 wins to the season total. That may be enough to get Seattle into the play-offs, but certainly nothing that will effect the league. That leaves Moss. When he is motivated he can still be a force. Minn is entering a tough stretch of the schedule (@Jets, Cowboys, @Green Bay, @New England). I think Moss wins two of those games by himself and keeps Minny’s Superbowl hopes alive.

5. I see some alarming trends in the NFL right now. The rules continue to change to protect marquee players (ie, you can only hit the quarterback below the neck and above the thighs, and even then, if you hit him too hard, they’ll probably call unnecessary roughness; see Ray Lewis’s rants for more). The concussion problem continues to grow (or at least to be more frequently diagnosed), and studies on the long-term effects of constant head collisions are revealing more and more deleterious effects. Rookie first-round salaries are way, way, WAY too high, and veteran benefits are virtually non-existent, and the NFLPA doesn’t seem to care. Players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever, but injuries are more frequent and less predictable than ever. Will professional football as we know it exist in 20 years? Will it be flag football? Will it only be played in third-world countries? Will it be played by robots? Or in virtual reality? Tell us the shape of things to come, Doc!

Relax, as long as there is MMA in this country, there will still be tackle football. I think there will be a few changes. 1. Better helmet technology will be required for every player. 2. Doctor’s hired by the NFL will examine players and have authority to pull them out of games. 3. A rookie salary cap will be put in place and life-long health benefits will be given to retired players in the next CBA. The one thing to keep you eye is this dementia and suicide thing. If it turns out that playing Pro-football dramatically increases the risk of early dementia and suicide then there may be a move back to limiting contact.