TJ: Okay, Doc, I went a little random with the questions this week. As per your request, I’m laying off the “helmet hits legislation” controversy, but question 2 might touch on medical issues related to cranial injury, so try not to get your panties in a bunch. Let’s get going:
1. In college, the BCS system doesn’t take margin-of-victory into account in an effort to prevent teams from running up the score. This doesn’t apply to the NFL, obviously, so you rarely see teams passing the ball with a 30-point lead (2007 Patriots excluded), and scores don’t usually get out of hand, with good teams putting the breaks on late in the game. Does this mean that offensive output doesn’t tell us much about the quality of teams in the NFL? Example: Detroit is 1-5, but they’re second in the NFC in scoring at 146 total points, while Tampa is 3-2 having only scored 88. The same is true of total yards of offense, with 2-4 San Diego leading the league in this category, while Pittsburgh is 29th. Are wins and losses all you can use when determining how good a team is? This is a great question. I think you are right about the Offensive stats being mis-leading. Offense yards are largely a reflection of a lot of passing because it increases the number of possessions and gives you large chunks of yardage. The problem is that bad teams that fall behind early pass more frequently they get a lot of yards, but frequently lose games (like Detroit and San Diego). Certainly there are some very good teams that are built around a passing offense, namely Indy and New Orleans, but in general defense and balanced passing/running has been more successful this year. I have always hated the yardage stat for defense. The simple stat I like is points per game allowed. The top 10 in this category is Pitt, Balt, Chicago, Tenn, Atlanta/NY Jets, Minn, New Orleans, KC, Green Bay. The bottom 5 are Oakland, Arizona, Jax/Houston, Buff. That has the feel of good face validity. The only time this stat does not work is when there is a big imbalance between Offense on Defense on the same team. For instance, the Bears D is really good, but there Offense is shaky, so #3 overall seems a little high. The same for Houston, there D is terrible but as a team they are a little above average because their Offense can bail them out (like Washington and Kansas City).
2. Former stud linebacker and NFL poster-boy Junior Seau has been in the news recently. He allegedly assaulted his 25-year-old girlfriend, was arrested, and spent the night in the pokey. Things got a little crazier the next day, though, when Seau ran his SUV off a 100-foot cliff and was hospitalized for the injuries. Seau told the cops he fell asleep at the wheel (somewhat believable after a sleepless night in jail), and the cops say the lack of skid marks at the scene is consistent with that. Now, Doc, you’re used to dealing with the crazies: does this not sound more like a suicide attempt to you? And if so, doesn’t this fit with both the depression that often hits newly-retired athletes, and with the erratic behavior and depression that seem to come with repeated brain trauma in retired NFL players? First a few disclaimers. The Doc is something of a specialist in assessing suicide risk. I probably assess 4-6 people a week in the Emergency Room. Also I have not interviewed Seau and I have no medical information on the case. Finally, I am not technically allowed to speculate on Seau himself, but I can discuss my approach to a case like this. In general this would fall under the category of ‘impulsive attempt’ since there is no evidence of acts made in preparation of death (like writing a suicide note or leaving extra food for your pets, etc...). In cases of impulsive attempts, you would basically consider a few things. 1. Its not a suicide attempt. People sometimes accidently take too many pills trying to fall asleep or accidently cut themselves and its not a suicide attempt in any way. This could certainly be true in this case. He was up all night in jail and fell asleep on the way home. Entirely plausible. 2. Narcissistic injury. This will frequently happen in cases where important people (or people who think they are important) have their self-identity injured in some way. Unable to go on in a world where they are no longer recognized as being ‘great’ or ‘important’, the person impulsively attempts suicide to avoid the perceived slight. I saw a similar case where a vice-president of a company got fired by his boss and he went home and turned on the car in the garage and tried to kill himself with carbon monoxide. He later admitted that he wanted his boss to feel guilty for driving him to kill himself. 3. Hypofrontality. This is usually the case with children, the mentally retarded, and people with frontal brain injuries. The front of the brain is the sort of ‘brakes’ on stupid behavior. A lot of people will start off with a bad idea (like I want to kill myself or beat someone up), but come to come to their senses before they really do it. That’s your frontal lobe saying ‘things really aren’t that bad, you shouldn’t do this because you’ll be giving up on a lot of other really great stuff.’ For some reason people who either have not developed frontal activity (the young and the mentally retarded) or people with damage to their frontal lobe (demented elderly or Brain injury patients) have no ‘brakes’ and just go ahead and do stupid shit. This would be a tough case as all 3 are plausible, I am glad I am not the psychiatrist in this case.
3. The Jets have the best record in the league at 5-1. Last season, they were 9-7, just above mediocre. This year, in six games, they’ve forced 14 turnovers and given up only 4 (+10), while last year they forced 32 and gave up 30 (+2) in 16 games. My question: doesn’t this mean the Jets have just gotten lucky? Is turnover margin a reflection of improved tactics and talent, or will the Jets come back to earth as the turnover margin corrects itself? Turnover’s given up is a funny statistic. I think its been pretty clearly shown that fumble recoveries are mainly chance, but INTs are another matter. Certainly there is some luck involved with tipped passes or dropped INTs by the defenders, but I think it is mainly a reflection of QB play. Sanchez had 20 picks last year and 2 so far this year. That projects out to 5 this year. That is not luck by itself. I think it is a reflection of his improved play and probably the best argument that the Jets are for real.
4. Sam Bradford has gotten a lot of pub for his QB performance, but his rating is 69.3, 30th in the league, and he has more INTs (8) than TDs (7). Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s never mentioned, has a passer rating of 100 (ranked 4th) with 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Is this a statistical aberration? If Peyton lost his right arm in a bull-milking accident tomorrow, who would you rather have playing QB for your beloved Colts? I thought it was interesting that Fitzpatrick was the 4th ranked QB as well, but lets not get carried away. His team allowed 38, 38, and 36 in those 3 losses. QBs will always put up stats when they are trailing. I think we will see those numbers come down when Defensive coordinators have more tape to scheme him. I would definitely pick Bradford long term. I think the long term record is good for QBs who can ‘keep their head above water’ their first year and Bradford is OK. Expect to see a big jump next year like Sanchez did this year.
5. It’s often argued by NBA, MLB, and NHL fans and commentators that the there are too many teams, and that the talent pool has become too dilute, reducing overall quality of play. I rarely hear this argument for the NFL, but when so many teams are struggling to find a suitable QB, and running backs have a 3-year life expectancy, I’d argue that the NFL would benefit as much as any sport from a bit of contraction (OK, maybe not as much as hockey, which should contract to about 4 teams total, all in Montreal). So, if the NFL had to kill 8 franchises to move to a 24-team league, and you were in charge, who would you contract, and why?
So this is strictly hypothetical since the owners are making a ton of money and would never buy out 8 franchises and put out less product. But I do love it because its fun to rank the fan bases. The same logic would apply if you asked me to come up with a list of the top candidates to move to LA. My criteria are pretty simple: try to spread out the cuts evenly amongst divisions, keep fair geographical distribution, reward loyal fan bases, and try to keep ‘historic’ franchises. In reverse order these are my cuts.
8. San Diego/Oakland- I had a hard time deciding here. San Diego has little history and poor fan support. Oakland has a lot of history, but is poorly run and I don’t think the Bay Area gets two teams in a 24 team league. This would be my ultimatum. The first team that agrees to move to LA gets to stay in the league, the other team gets cut.
7. Carolina- I waffled between Atlanta and Carolina. Carolina has no history (except one Superbowl loss), but Atlanta does not have much history either and does not get great fan support. Ultimately, Atlanta is a more important economic region that Carolina.
6. Detroit- This was a tough cut because they were an original franchise and their fans are actually pretty loyal. But their history is pretty bad and you could put the Lions fans out of their misery. Plus the failing Michigan economy can’t support the team as well as it once could.
5. Buffalo- Another tough cut. Buffalo fans are loyal and the team means a lot to the region, but its just not economically feasible.
4. St. Louis- They have some history with The Greatest Show on Turf, but I always thought they didn’t fit into the NFL that well. The city sits between 3 more established franchises (Chicago, Tenn, and KC) so its not that important regionally.
3. Arizona- I am probably killing the old St. Louis Ram fans, but Arizona has no history, has been poorly run, and the fan base is composed mainly of older retirees who root for the other team.
2. Cincinnati- I am gutting the Midwest; which I think has too many teams. Cincy has a long track record of misery brought about by poor management. They are an embarrassment to the league and the city is within a few hours of both Indy and Cleveland.
1. Jax- The easiest cut of all. The Jags were a mistake from the beginning. Northern Florida is more of a college football area. The fans have not supported the team very well and they have no history. In fact, even without contraction, I would force Jax to move to LA, move them to the NFC West and put St. Louis in the AFC South along with Indy, Tenn, and Houston. Doesn’t that make a lot more sense?
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