A Couple of Big Trades and Their Impacts

Juice the NFL was rattled this week with the news of two trades that I think we need to discuss.

1. Buffalo trades Marshawn Lynch to Seattle for a 4th round pick and a conditional pick. 

DP: This trade makes sense from the football standpoint of creating playing time for Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Seattle, who is surprisingly in the hunt for an NFC West title, up-grades running back. Winner: Seattle. Lynch is still relatively young (4th year) and is clearly as good or better than any RB the Seahawks would have drafted in the 4th round anyway. Seattle is good at home: if they can go 7-1 or 8-0 at home, they have a legit shot at winning the West. Buffalo continues to flounder because of terrible decisions like this. In a division with three well run, talented teams (New England, Miami, and NY Jets) the Bills seem to have no direction. They picked Lynch in the first round in 2007 (2 picks ahead of Darelle Revis). It’s always risky to draft an RB in the first round since they have such short careers, then they give up on him and draft another RB this year in Spiller. The only chance the Bills have to compete is to draft well and get the most out their rookie deals. Meanwhile the still have no long term QB to develop. It looks like their long term plan is to bottom out this year (remaining games: Jax, @Balt, @KC, Chicago, Detroit, @Cincy, Pitt, @Minn, Cleveland, @Miami, New England, @Jets. I can see maybe 2 wins), draft a QB high and try to get some draft picks now to surround him with some young talent. 

TJ: Pretty much agree with your analysis.  Unless Lynch was a dick behind the scenes and they got rid of him for chemistry reasons, I can’t see how they’re getting enough back.  The Seahawks are contenders in an epically bad division.  It’s possible that St. Louis is on the rise, and could be a good team in a couple years, so it makes sense for the Seahawks to try to win this division while they can.  This trade helps them a ton toward that goal, without crippling them in future drafts.

2. The blockbuster trade of course is Randy Moss going back to Minnesota to team with Brett Farve.

DP: Minnesota tries to salvage the season while New England looks to get good value for a WR with diminishing production. Winner: New England. I guess this is a move you have to make if you’re Minnesota. This is likely Brett Farve's last year and your team has a ton of free agents next year (so the nucleus will likely get broken up). At 1-2, you are still alive in the mediocre NFC this year and could make a run. But Minnesota's next games are @Jets, Dallas, @Green Bay and @NE England. Even if you assume Minny will now beat NE, I still think they start 2-5 or 3-4. Favre and Moss have never handled losing well and Moss will be harping for a new deal along with all of Minny's other free agents. If Minny doesn't go on a little winning streak here, things could get toxic fast. As for New England, you have to respect Belichek for recognizing a true contender from a young team not ready yet. The defense is improving but probably not ready to compete this year. New England got Moss for a 4th round pick, then squeezed 50 TDs and 3750+yards out of him before trading him for a HIGHER pick (3rd round). That is why New England is one of the best run teams in the league. New England now has 8 picks in the first four rounds (their own picks plus Oakland's 1st, Carolina's second, Minnesota's 3rd, and Denver's 4th). I’d love to see New England go after Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, two players on teams that may need to think about adding more talent to roster.

TJ: Great analysis Doc.  Especially the point about NE getting more for Moss now than they gave up for him a few years ago.  Where I’ll disagree is in calling the Pats too young and not ready.  They can play with the Jets, and Miami isn’t there yet.  This is a year in which the division is up for grabs.  Brady isn’t getting younger, so I don’t see any reason to give up on the season.  They’ve got the trading chips (all those draft picks you mentioned, and who needs Edelman when you have Welker?), so why not make a run at a couple good defenders and/or receivers?  I don’t see any unbeatable teams this year (depending on how Pitt looks with Big Ben Back), so I say go for it.  Either way, trading Moss seems like a good idea for the Pats.  I agree that the Vikes are in rough shape, but this is a last-ditch effort with Favre, so I like the trade for them.  Seems like the right gamble to let the fans know they’re doing everything they can to take advantage of the window they have.