Week 6 Picks

Update: The Juice pulled out the win last week 9-5 to 8-6. That win narrows the overall season gap to Doctor Psych: 35-23-2 vs. The Juice: 23-35-2. We differ on 10 games this week, so this could be a wild swing in momentum.

San Diego -8 @ St. Louis
DP: San Diego has the top passing offense, St. Louis has the 24th ranked pass defense (and the QBs they faced are Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, and Shaun Hill). This could get ugly. Pick: Chargers.
TJ: The Rams have played well at home, and the Chargers are 0-3 on the road. I know everyone is going nuts over Detroit’s absolute ass-spanking of the Rams last week, but let’s not overreact. 8 points is a lot to give a home team, and I know SD always starts slow, but something seems wrong with them this year, I mean besides the fact that Norv Turner is incompetent and Shawn Merriman couldn’t start for my high school now that he’s off the ‘roids. I’ll take the Rams and the points.

@Houston -4.5 Kansas City
DP: Upset of the week KC over Houston.
TJ: KC showed their true colors last week against a good Indy team. I don’t like them on the road to begin with, and now Houston is feeling a little pressure with two home losses and such a tough division. I think Houston smokes these guys, so I’m happy to lay the points.

@New England -2.5 Baltimore
DP: This is a re-match of the play-off game from last year where Baltimore blew out the Pats. What’s different other than Moss being gone? Not much to convince me the Pats will cover. The Pats don’t have much of a running game and rely on the passing game to move the ball. The Ravens have a top pass defense and no deep threat. The Ravens keep the Pat’s offense in check. Pick: Ravens.
TJ: Man, this is a great game. I really don’t know what to expect, because both of these teams have shown signs of brilliance and toughness, and then played games filled with mistakes and weak play. I think both teams feel the pressure but respond well. The Pats have the Randy Moss drama off their backs (although he was really good; I don’t subscribe to any of the Bill Simmons Ewing Theory crap), and maybe Brady and the reacquired Deion Branch can get that old chemistry back. I say Patriots by a field goal, which covers just fine.

New Orleans -4 @Tampa
DP: These Saints line keep shrinking as we all assume that eventually the real Saints team shows up and covers a spread. The Saints may win but not my more than a FG. Pick: Bucs.
TJ: I really don’t believe in Tampa, and their three wins are against terrible teams. They lost by 25 at home to Pittsburgh, so we know home field doesn’t mean much for them against a quality opponent. The question is whether the Saints are still a quality opponent. I think they are, and this is the week they get rolling: limiting turnovers, finding the running game (without Bush), and creating opportunities on defense. Saints cover, for sure.

@Philly -2.5 Atlanta
DP: I really have no idea so I guess I should take the points and hope for a close game. Pick: Falcons.
TJ: So tough to pick this game since we’re still not sure if Vick is playing. Kolb got Philly a road win against the hapless 49er’s, but Atlanta is a much better team. The Birds have won on the road in New Orleans and Cleveland, and took the Steelers to OT in Pittsburgh. I like them to really get Michael Turner going and beat Philly outright, so I’ll definitely take them with the points.

@NY Giants -10 Detroit
DP: The Giants are much better when people are writing them off. I think they will underestimate a scrappy Lions team and fail to cover. Pick: Lions.
TJ: Again, let’s not overreact to last week’s game for Detroit. They’re scrappy, but they’re still a bad team, and they can’t get enough points on the road against a surging Giants club. I’ll take the G-Men to cover the 10 point spread.

@Chicago -6.5 Seattle
DP: If this were at Seattle, I might feel better about the Seahawks chances but they don’t travel well, they are facing a tough Bears defense and they don’t have a good enough defense to exploit the Bear’s weak O-line. Lock of the Week: Bears.
TJ: The Seahawks don’t just lose on the road, they get clubbed like baby seals on the road. Chicago sees the opportunity to secure a stranglehold on the division with the Vikes and Packers both playing tough games this week. I say they take advantage and beat Seattle by more than a TD.

@Green Bay -3.5 Miami
DP: Green Bay has struggled recently and have an unknown back-up at QB. Seriously I have no idea who it is. Miami is disciplined and as we have seen play well on the road. UPDATE: Apparently Aaron Rodgers will be playing, but I say it makes no difference! Green is too banged up and the Fins are desperate. I still say the Pack fails to cover. Pick: Dolphins.
TJ: Green Bay’s at home, and they need this win to avoid giving the Bears too much of a cushion. Rodgers practiced today, and I don’t see him sitting this one out. Pack in a rout, easily covering the spread.

@Pittsburgh -13.5 Cleveland
DP: Even if I think Ben R will be rusty, it looks like the rookie Colt McCoy will be starting against a vicious Steelers Defense. This one of those games where you can’t pick the underdog, because you would rather lose than risk feeling incredibly stupid when the Steelers are crushing the Browns in the 4Q. Pick: Steelers.
TJ: God, I hate this line. Not because it’s so high, but because, even though I’m a Browns fan, I don’t think it’s high enough. It looks like they’re going to start McCoy on the road against the best team in the league. Big Ben might be rusty, but he won’t be bad enough to kill the team, especially since they should be able to run the ball through the Cleveland defense like it’s covered in Astroglide. I hate to say it, but I think Pittsburgh covers.

NY Jets -3 @Denver
DP: Classic trap game. The Jets had an emotional Monday night win then have to travel across the country to high altitude on a short week. The Jets are a big market team with a big bandwagon this year so I suspect the public is backing them heavily. So why only a 3 point spread? It means the sharps must be picking the Broncos and I’ve learned never to go against the sharps. Pick: Broncos.
TJ: Denver’s a tough place to play. And aren’t the Jets due for a bit of a letdown? On the flip side, the Broncos rely almost entirely on the pass, and the Jets have proven to have one of the best pass defenses we’ve seen in a long time. I think they go into Mile High and get the job done for one more week (and save that let down for Green Bay next weekend). Jets are the pick.

@San Fran -6.5 Oakland
DP: Is this the biggest spread an 0-5 team has ever had? Seriously, how can they be a TD favorite? The conventional wisdom says take the Raiders and the points. Doctor Psych hates conventional wisdom. Pick: 49ers.
TJ: I can’t back San Fran anymore. That probably means this is their week to win, but how can I pass up getting 6.5 points against an 0-5 team? Raiders, please.

@Minnesota -1.5 Dallas
DP: Dallas could not contain the Minny D-line last year and their O-line is even worse this year. Their center Andre Gurode may be out and The Juice can tell you it’s never good to have a back-up center in! Moss loves to torment the Cowboys and if the Cowboys pull the safeties back, Adrian Peterson will run wild. I think Minny goes to 2-3, right behind Chicago and Green Bay, and gets back in the play-off race. Pick: VIkes.
TJ: With the Vikes laying only 1.5 at home, Vegas is basically saying Dallas is the better team. Bullshit. I talked about this game in “5 Questions” this week, and said that neither team has much chance to pull it together, but I like the Vikes better than the ‘Boys. I’m sticking to my guns, and think the Vikings get it together this week.

Indy -3 @Washington
DP: I will dispatch with any analysis because I can’t go against Manning in a night game. Pick: Colts.
TJ: I wish Indy weren’t so unpredictable. I mean, they kill a quality team like the Giants and win on the road in Denver, then go and lose in Jacksonville. I’m no Washington fan, but they won in Philly and beat Green Bay last week, so they can’t be that bad. Washington depends heavily on the pass and Indy’s pass rush only touched Matt Cassel twice last week for zero sacks. If McNabb gets that kind of time, he’ll make some plays. I’ll take the ‘Skins at home.

Tennessee -3 @ Jacksonville
DP: Boy Jax gets no respect. Sure Buffalo is terrible but Jax did beat the Broncos and Colts at home. Jax can be victimized by strong passing attacks; which Tenn does not have. This is a division game so they have seen Chris Johnson before. Nothing indicates to me that the Titans can pull away for sure. Pick: Jax.
TJ: This is a tough division game, and, as we discussed in “5 Questions,” the loser is in some trouble. It’s tough not to take the home dog here, but I’m sticking to my pick and taking the Titans to cover.